1. Before you begin
This app helps you answer one question: "Will my money last for the rest of my life?"
You type in what you have, what you earn and what you spend. The app plays your life forward, year by year. It shows how your savings rise and fall, what taxes you may pay, and how likely your plan is to work.
Gather these first. Rough numbers are fine. You can change them any time.
- Your birth year (and your spouse's or partner's).
- The age you hope to stop working.
- Your yearly pay before tax.
- Your account balances: workplace plan (401(k), 403(b)), IRAs, Roth, brokerage, savings, HSA.
- How much you put into each account per year, and any employer match.
- Your Social Security estimate. Get it free at ssa.gov/myaccount. Use the monthly amount "at full retirement age".
- Your yearly spending. A rough total is enough to start.
- Your home value and mortgage, if you own a home.
- Any pension, and what it pays.
2. Quick start (10 minutes)
Follow these steps. We use an example: Maria, born 1971, single. She wants to retire at 65.
- Open the planner. A sample plan loads by itself. It saves automatically as you type.
- Make your own copy. In the top bar, click Rename and type a name, like "Maria's plan".
- Go to the Plan inputs tab.
- Household & taxes. Maria is single, so she unticks Plan as a couple. She picks her state.
- You. She enters Birth year 1971, Retirement age 65, Life expectancy (plan to age) 95, Salary 80000. She enters 1500 as her Social Security benefit and 67 as her claiming age.
- Accounts & balances. She edits the rows to match her accounts. Her 401(k) has 300000 and she adds 15000 a year. Her employer adds 4000. She removes rows she does not have with ✕.
- Expenses. She enters her yearly costs: housing 18000, food 9000, other 15000. Healthcare and her home are entered elsewhere, so she does not add them here.
- Go to the Dashboard. Read the coloured line at the top. It might say "✓ On track: your money lasts in 88% of 500 simulated market futures (Monte Carlo runs)."
- Try a what-if. Click Duplicate. In the copy, change her retirement age to 63. Then open Compare scenarios, tick both plans and click Compare selected.
- Back up. Click Export JSON to save a file copy of your plans.
That's it. The rest of this manual explains every field and result in detail.
3. How the app works
Years and ages
- The plan runs one year at a time. It starts in the Plan start year and ends in the year the last person reaches their life expectancy age.
- Ages are ages, not years. "65" means "when I am 65". It never means "in 65 years". Ages in expenses, events, Roth conversions and real estate are your age (the first person), unless the field says "owner".
- You stop working in the year you reach your retirement age. Example: retirement age 65 means you work through age 64 and are retired the year you turn 65.
Today's money vs. future dollars
- Prices rise over time (inflation). $100 buys less in 20 years than it does now.
- Most amounts you type are in today's money. Example: if you spend $50,000 a year today, type 50000. The app raises it each year with inflation for you.
- Results can be shown either way. On the Dashboard, the box Show in today's dollars switches the charts and table. Ticked = today's money (easiest to understand). Unticked = the actual future dollar amounts.
- The exception: a pension or income with COLA unticked, and an event with Today's $ unticked, stay at the fixed dollar amount you typed.
Percents
Type percents as plain numbers. For 5%, type 5, not 0.05. For 0.15%, type 0.15.
Blank fields
A blank "end age" or "to age" means "for life" or "no end". A blank buy age means "already owned". A blank sell age means "never sold". A blank account fee uses the plan-wide fee.
Saving
Every change saves itself in your browser. The top bar shows "Saved" and the time.
4. Plan inputs, field by field
The Plan inputs tab holds everything about your situation. It has boxes (sections) at the top and tables (lists) below. Each section in the app has a ? link to its part of this manual.
Household & taxes
- Plan as a couple
- Tick if you plan with a spouse or partner. A second person's fields will appear. Couples file taxes jointly while both are alive.
- Plan start year
- The first year of the plan. Normally this year. Balances you enter are as of the start of this year.
- Tax regime
- Which country's tax rules to use. Choose "United States" unless you live in the UK, Canada or Australia. "Custom" lets you type your own tax brackets.
- Tax dividends and interest every year (taxable and cash accounts)
- On by default. Brokerage and savings accounts pay dividends and interest every year, and you owe tax on them that year even if you reinvest them. With this on, the app adds that income to your taxes each year: qualified dividends at the lower capital-gains rates (0%, 15% or 20%), everything else (interest, bond funds, non-qualified dividends) like wages. It also counts in your AGI, the 3.8% net investment income tax, Medicare's IRMAA surcharge, the ACA premium credit and how much of your Social Security is taxed. Because the money was already taxed, what you reinvest raises your cost basis, so you pay less capital-gains tax when you sell later. Untick only to compare with older versions of the app, which ignored this tax. How much it changes results.
- State (US)
- Your state, for state income tax. Choose "Custom flat rate" to type one rate.
- Custom state / regional rate (%)
- Only used with "Custom flat rate", or as a regional tax outside the US. Type 5 for 5%.
- Heirs' tax rate on pre-tax accounts (%)
- When your children inherit a 401(k) or IRA, they pay income tax on it. This rate (for example 24) is used to show what your heirs really keep.
- Spending after a partner dies (%)
- Living costs once only one of you is alive, as a % of the couple's. One person usually needs about 70–80% (housing doesn't halve). 100 = no change.
- Plan for a Social Security cut / Size of the cut / Cut starts in year
- The 2026 Social Security Trustees Report projects that the combined trust funds run out in 2034, after which incoming payroll taxes would pay about 83% of benefits unless Congress acts. Tick to cut all Social Security (retirement, spouse, survivor and SSDI) by that % from that year. Default 17% from 2034. A careful planner may want to test with it on. There is also a What-if button for it on the Dashboard.
- Extra income while working: save it to / Share of that extra income saved (%)
- What happens to pay left over after your bills and planned savings while you still work. Pick where saved money goes (taxable account, cash, or Roth) and what share is saved, for example 50 = save half and spend half. Leave the share blank to save all of it (or none, if you chose "Nowhere: spend it"). If you are unsure, choose "spend it". It is the cautious choice. After you retire, leftovers are always saved. Money from a home sale and one-time windfalls (a one-time event that brings money in, such as an inheritance) are always saved.
- Cap contributions at IRS limits
- Keeps yearly contributions within legal limits (for example $24,500 for a 401(k) in 2026, more at age 50+). Leave it ticked.
- Harvest capital gains in 0% bracket
- An advanced tax trick. In low-income years, the app sells and rebuys investments so the gains are taxed at 0%. This lowers future taxes. Safe to tick if you have a brokerage account.
- Harvest investment losses in down years (tax-loss harvesting) / Share of a fall you can harvest (%)
- When a taxable (ordinary brokerage) account falls in value, you can sell, take the "loss" on paper, and at once buy a similar but not identical fund, so you stay invested. Each year the loss first cancels out investment gains, then up to $3,000 of other income; the rest carries forward to later years with no time limit. Selling and rebuying lowers the account's cost basis by the same amount, so you pay more tax when you finally sell. The benefit is mostly timing plus any years you are in a lower bracket later. Share of a fall you can harvest (default 50) is a rough guess at how much of a fall you can actually capture: some of your holdings will still be above what you paid. The year-by-year table shows Loss harvested, Loss used and Loss carried. US tax regime only. This is a simple rule of thumb, not a trading plan; see Limitations for the "wash-sale" rule.
You / Spouse / partner
- Name
- Any name. Used in labels.
- Birth year
- For example 1975. Used for every age in the plan.
- Birth month / Birth day (optional)
- Only used to fill in Open Social Security exactly. Leave blank and January 1 is assumed there. The plan itself works in whole years.
- Gender (optional)
- Only used by Open Social Security, whose life-expectancy tables differ for women and men. Leave as "—" and that site uses its own default.
- Retirement age
- The age you stop working (for example 65). If this is your current age or lower, you are treated as already retired, and your salary is ignored. The app warns you.
- Life expectancy (plan to age)
- The age the plan should last to. Choose a long age, such as 92 to 95. Running out at 85 is a real risk if you live to 95.
- Salary (today's money/yr)
- Yearly pay before tax, in today's money. Example: 80000.
- Real salary growth (%/yr)
- How much faster than inflation your pay grows. This is on top of inflation. With inflation at 2.5%, a 1 here means about 3.5% raises a year. If you expect normal raises that just keep up with prices, type 0 or 0.5.
- Self-employed: the salary is business profit (pays self-employment tax)
- Tick if you work for yourself (sole proprietor or single-member LLC). The salary is then your net profit. The app adds self-employment tax (15.3% on 92.35% of profit up to the $184,500 Social Security wage base in 2026, then 2.9%, plus 0.9% above $200,000 single / $250,000 joint), deducts half of it from income, caps employer contributions to your own 401(k) at 20% of profit after that half, and gives the qualified business income (QBI) deduction of up to 20%. The QBI deduction phases out above $201,750 (single) / $403,500 (joint) taxable income; the app assumes no employees or business property, so above the range it is only the $400 minimum. See the Solo 401(k) card.
- SS benefit at FRA ($/mo, 0 = estimate)
- Your monthly Social Security at "full retirement age", from your SSA statement, in today's money. Type 0 and the app estimates it from your salary.
- SS claiming age
- Pick the age you plan to start Social Security retirement benefits from the list, 62 to 70. Each age says what it means for your birth year: reduced (before full retirement age, with the % of your full benefit you would get), full retirement age (100%), delayed (a bonus of 8% a year), or maximum at 70 (no gain from waiting longer). Full retirement age is worked out from the birth year: 66 for 1943–54, then 66 and 2 months up to 66 and 10 months for 1955–59, and 67 for 1960 or later. When it is not a whole age (such as "66 y 10 m"), that exact age is in the list too. Change the birth year and the list updates. An older plan with an age outside 62–70 shows it as "not a valid claiming age"; 62 or 70 is used until you pick one. Outside the US the list runs 55 to 75 with no labels. Ignored for people on SSDI. See Social Security.
- Receiving SSDI (disability)
- Tick if this person gets (or will get) Social Security Disability Insurance. The claiming age above is then ignored. See SSDI and SSI.
- SSDI benefit ($/mo, 0 = PIA)
- The monthly SSDI amount from the SSA award letter or my Social Security, in today's money. Blank or 0 uses the "SS benefit at FRA" above (SSDI equals your PIA).
- SSDI start age (blank = already receiving)
- The age SSDI starts, 18 or older. Blank, or an age you have already passed, means you are receiving it now.
- Divorced: ex-spouse's benefit at full retirement age / Ex-spouse's birth year / Year the ex-spouse died
- Only shown under You, and only used when Plan as a couple is off. If you were married for at least 10 years and are not remarried, you can get a benefit based on your ex's record, and it does not reduce what your ex or their new spouse gets. Enter your ex's monthly benefit at full retirement age (from their statement, if you can get it; a guess is fine) and birth year. While your ex is alive and at least 62, you get your own benefit plus a top-up to half of your ex's amount, reduced if you claim before your full retirement age. After your ex dies, you can get a survivor benefit of up to 100% of your ex's amount (reduced by up to 28.5% if you claim at 60 instead of at full retirement age). The app uses whichever is larger: your own benefit or the divorced-spouse one. The year-by-year table then has a SS on ex's record column. Simplified: it ignores the ex's early or delayed claiming, and remarriage (which normally ends these benefits, except a survivor benefit if you remarry after 60).
Market assumptions: base set (nominal, %/yr)
These say how investments might grow. The defaults are reasonable long-term averages. You can leave them alone.
- Return preset
- A quick way to fill in returns. Conservative 4% a year (low risk, volatility 5), Moderate 6% (medium risk, volatility 10), Aggressive 8% (higher risk, volatility 15), Bank 0% (no growth and no ups and downs, like cash under the mattress; cash yield is set to 0 too). A preset gives stocks and bonds the same return, so your Stocks % no longer changes the average growth (bond volatility is capped at 6). Choose Custom to set each return yourself. Typing in any return or volatility field switches the preset to Custom. All presets are nominal. Assumption sets (Optimistic/Pessimistic) have no presets; they keep their own numbers.
- Stock return
- Average yearly growth of stocks. Default 9 (9%).
- Stock volatility (SD)
- How much stocks swing from year to year. 17 means a typical year lands within about ±17% of the average. Used by Monte Carlo.
- Bond return / Bond volatility (SD)
- The same for bonds. Bonds grow less but swing less.
- Cash yield
- Interest on savings and cash accounts.
- Stock dividend yield (%) / Share of dividends that are "qualified" (%) / Muni bond yield as % of taxable bond yield
- Used to work out the yearly income from taxable accounts when you leave an account's own yield blank. Stock dividend yield: default 1.5 (US stocks pay about 1%, international stocks more). Qualified share: default 90; most dividends from US companies and many foreign ones held long enough are qualified. The bond part of an account pays the bond return as interest. Muni ratio: default 75, so a muni pays 75% of what a taxable bond pays (in October 2026 ten-year AAA munis paid about 77% of Treasuries). Only used for accounts set to munis.
- Inflation / Inflation volatility (SD)
- How fast prices rise (default 2.5) and how much that varies.
- Fund fees / expense ratio
- Yearly fund fees in percent, such as 0.15. Taken from returns each year. An account's own Fee % replaces this.
The stock/bond mix, how often it is rebalanced and how it changes with age are now set in the next section, Allocation.
Allocation: rebalancing and mix over time
Each account has its own stock share (the Stocks % column in the accounts list). Your overall stock share is the average of those, weighted by balance, with cash accounts left out. This section sets how that mix behaves over time. The small chart shows the planned stock share at each age, and the line under it sums it up. These settings apply to every run: average returns, Monte Carlo and historical.
- Rebalance the mix
- Rebalancing means selling some of what has grown and buying what has fallen, so your mix goes back to its target. Every year is the default, and all plans made before this option existed use it, so their results do not change. With Every 2, 3 or 5 years, the mix drifts between rebalances: after a good stretch for stocks you hold more stocks than planned, and after a crash you hold fewer. Never lets it drift for the whole plan. Over long periods stocks usually grow faster, so a mix that is never rebalanced tends to end up mostly stocks. That often means a bigger ending balance, but also bigger swings and deeper falls late in life. Rebalancing within an account does not cause tax in this app.
- Change the stock share over time (glide path)
- Tick to make your target stock share change with age. The path moves all your accounts up or down together, and each account keeps its difference from the others. So if your Roth holds more stocks than your IRA (see Asset location), it still does. An account can't go below 0% or above 100%. The path follows the first person's age. With rebalancing every 2–5 years, the mix moves to the path only in rebalancing years. With Never, the path sets only the first year's mix.
- Glide path shape
-
- Move to a set stock % by retirement: the original option. Each account moves in a straight line from its own mix today to the stock % you enter, reached when its owner retires, and then stays there. Plans made before this change keep working exactly as before.
- Straight line between two ages: from a starting stock % to an ending stock %. Before the start age you hold the starting %; after the end age you hold the ending %.
- Fewer stocks at retirement, then rising: the "rising equity glide path". You glide down in a straight line from today's mix to a low point at retirement, then add stocks year by year to the ending %. The idea, studied by Wade Pfau and Michael Kitces, is that the first years of retirement are when a crash hurts most. Holding more bonds then and more stocks later can lower that risk. Defaults: 30% at retirement, rising to 60% 15 years later.
- My own steps: a list of age:stock% pairs, such as 55:70, 65:50, 75:40. Each step holds until the next one, so the chart looks like a staircase.
- Stocks % at retirement
- For the "set stock % by retirement" shape: the stock share to reach by retirement, for example 50.
- Starting stock % / Ending stock %
- For the straight-line and rising shapes. A blank starting % uses your accounts' current mix (straight line) or 30 (rising). A blank ending % uses 50 (straight line) or 60 (rising).
- Change starts at age / Change ends at age
- The first person's ages. You can type a calendar year instead, such as 2040. If left blank, the straight line runs from now to retirement, and the rising shape runs from retirement to 15 years later.
- Steps (age:stock%) / Stock % before the first step
- For "My own steps". Separate pairs with commas. You can type years instead of ages. Before the first step, your current mix is used unless you enter a % here.
Other tabs: the Asset location tool and the optimizer's "more or fewer stocks" idea change each account's own stock %, and the glide path then moves those new mixes over time. On the TPAW tab, the TPAW method sets its own stock share from your risk tolerance, so it doesn't use this glide path. The SPAW and SWR comparison methods follow this plan's glide path when their own "Stocks % now / at the last age" boxes are blank. TPAW always rebalances every year.
Withdrawals
- Withdrawal order
- Which accounts to spend from first in retirement. The default (cash, then taxable, then traditional, then Roth, then HSA) is a common, tax-sensible order.
- Custom order (drag or use ↑ ↓)
- Set your own order: drag an account type up or down, or use the ↑ and ↓ buttons (keyboard friendly). The list above then shows "Custom". Required withdrawals (RMDs) are always taken first, whatever the order.
- Withdrawal strategy
- Fixed: planned expenses spends exactly what you entered. This is the simplest choice. Other choices let spending move with the market:
- Lifetime consumption smoothing: one steady spending level for life (see Monte Carlo tab).
- Inflation-adjusted initial % (4% rule): spend a set % of savings in year one, then raise it with inflation.
- Constant % of portfolio: spend the same % of whatever you have each year.
- Guyton-Klinger guardrails: cut spending after big losses, raise it after big gains.
- Variable percentage withdrawal (VPW): spend more as you age, based on years left.
- Withhold the inflation raise after a bad year (conservative): start like the 4% rule, but in a year after your savings fell, while they are below their starting value (after inflation), skip that year's inflation raise. Once savings are back above the starting value, spending goes back to the full inflation-adjusted amount.
- Withhold the raise after a bad year, raise more in good times (flexible): the same, but when savings are above their starting value it adds a quarter of a year's inflation on top each year, and a full extra year's inflation when they are more than double.
- Initial / constant rate (%)
- The % used by the 4% rule, constant % and guardrails. Default 4.
- Raise withheld: × inflation
- For the two "withhold the raise" strategies: how much of a year's inflation is skipped after a bad year. 1 (default) skips exactly one year's raise; 2 skips twice as much, which is more cautious. Ideas from the spending-policy research by retirement planners; the thresholds are yours to change.
- Guardrail band (±%) / Guardrail adjustment (%)
- For guardrails. Band 20 means "act when the withdrawal rate drifts 20% from the start". Adjustment 10 means "change spending by 10%".
- VPW growth rate / own growth rate / most to take in a year
- Variable percentage withdrawal (from the Bogleheads community) takes a set share of your savings each year. The share rises as you age, so that the money is used up by age 100 (or by your life expectancy, if you entered one above 100); at 99 it would be 100% of what is left. The share depends on the growth rate. By default it comes from your mix: 5.0% a year after inflation for stocks and 1.9% for bonds (60% stocks gives 3.76%). Choose "My own rate" to type one. Most to take in a year caps the share (default 10%), which leaves money for life past 100; 0 removes the cap. Example: $1,200,000 at 65 with 30% stocks → 4.4% → $52,800 in the first year. For a couple, the younger living person's age sets the share. Check it did what you expected: the year table's Withdrawals column divided by the savings at the start of that year. Method: the Bogleheads wiki page "Variable percentage withdrawal"; the app works the table out from its formula.
- VPW: count Social Security and pensions that haven't started yet
- If you retire before your Social Security or pension begins, plain VPW keeps spending low in those early years. With this ticked, the app adds the value today of all your future Social Security, pension and other regular income (up to age 100) to your savings, works out the yearly amount from that bigger total, and takes from savings only what your income does not cover yet. You spend more before the income starts and draw less after. Leave it unticked if you would rather keep a separate "bridge" fund.
- Smoothed discretionary spending (today's money/yr)
- For consumption smoothing: yearly "fun money" on top of essentials.
- Apply go-go/slow-go phases to smoothed spending
- Lets smoothed spending fall in later years, using the spending phases.
- Spending floor / Floor amount / Spending ceiling
- For the flexible strategies (4% rule, constant %, guardrails, VPW). A floor keeps total retirement spending from falling below a level: either an amount you choose (today's money per year) or your guaranteed income, which means you always spend at least your Social Security, pensions and rent. A ceiling caps total spending in great years so more stays invested. 0 = no limit. Spending never goes below your Essential expenses either way. A high floor can drain savings in bad markets.
- Rule of 55 / no early-withdrawal penalty
- Normally, taking money from a 401(k) or IRA before age 59½ costs a 10% penalty. Tick this if you leave your job in or after the year you turn 55, or otherwise qualify. It removes the penalty.
- Smoothed spending follows household size / Children at home: birth years / Children leave home at age
- Only for the Smooth spending strategy. A household of two does not need twice what one person needs: rent, heating and the car are shared. When this is ticked, the smoothed amount you set is for today's household, and it changes as people join or leave: each adult counts as 1 but adults are combined with a power of 0.7 (two adults ≈ 1.62 "people"), and each child at home adds 0.5. For example, a couple with two children at home: 1.62 + 1.0 = 2.62. When both children have left, spending falls to 1.62 ÷ 2.62 = 62% of the starting level; after one partner dies, to 1 ÷ 2.62 = 38%. Enter the children's birth years separated by commas; they count as "at home" until the age you give (default 22). This replaces the simpler "survivor spending" setting for the smoothed amount. Your essential expenses and other fixed costs are not changed. These weights are a common rule of thumb from household-spending studies, not a measure of your own household.
Roth conversions
A Roth conversion moves money from a traditional 401(k)/IRA to a Roth. You pay tax now, but later growth and withdrawals are tax-free. Often worth doing in low-income years between retirement and Social Security.
- Strategy
- None; Fixed amount per year; Fill up to tax bracket converts just enough to reach the top of a tax bracket you choose, counting your other income that year; Stay under IRMAA tier converts while keeping income under a Medicare surcharge level.
- Fixed amount (today's money)
- For the fixed strategy, for example 30000.
- Bracket to fill
- 10%, 12%, 22%, 24% or 32%. Lower brackets are cheaper. The amount is worked out each year after everything else (Social Security, pensions, withdrawals), so taxable income lands at the top of the bracket you chose.
- IRMAA limit
- Which Medicare surcharge tier to stay below.
- From your age / To your age
- The ages (yours) when conversions happen, for example 63 to 72.
Not sure? Use the Roth conversion strategy explorer on the Taxes tab. It compares the choices for you.
Assumption sets
Three ready-made views of the future: Base (average), Optimistic and Pessimistic.
- Active set
- Which set the whole plan uses right now. You can also switch it on the Dashboard.
- Optimistic / Pessimistic: stock return, bond return, inflation, stock volatility
- The numbers for each set, in %. A blank field uses the base value.
Early access & charitable giving
- Use 72(t) SEPP
- A legal way to take money from a 401(k)/IRA before 59½ without the 10% penalty. You must take fixed yearly amounts for at least 5 years or until 59½, whichever is longer. Breaking the schedule is costly in real life.
- SEPP owner / SEPP start age / SEPP interest rate
- Whose account, when it starts, and the interest rate used for the payment (at most the larger of 5% or 120% of the IRS "AFR" rate).
- Annual giving (today's money)
- Money you give to charity each year.
- Giving from your age / to your age
- When you give. Blank = always.
- Give via QCDs when eligible
- From age 70½, gifts can come straight from an IRA (a "QCD"). This is tax-free and counts toward required withdrawals. The limit is $111,000 per person in 2026, rising with inflation. Leave ticked.
- Bunch gifts (e.g. donor-advised fund)
- Giving only lowers your tax if you itemize, and most people take the standard deduction instead. "Bunching" means giving 2 to 5 years' worth of gifts in one year (often into a donor-advised fund, which then pays charities over time) and nothing in the years between. In the bunch year you itemize; in the other years you take the standard deduction. The total given over the years is the same. Choose how many years to bunch. The last bunch only covers the years left in your giving range. Bunching stops once QCDs are on and someone is 71 or older, because QCDs already avoid tax without itemizing. Compare lifetime taxes with and without it in the Compare tab. When bunching is on, the year-by-year table has a Gifts column.
Healthcare & Medicare
All amounts are per person, per year, in today's money. They include premiums and out-of-pocket costs.
- While working: premiums+OOP
- What you pay for job-based health insurance. Example: 3000.
- Retired before 65: benchmark ACA premium + OOP
- Cost of buying your own insurance before Medicare (on healthcare.gov) before any subsidy. Often 8000 to 15000.
- Apply ACA premium tax credit
- Tick to subtract the government subsidy based on your income. Above 400% of the poverty level there is no subsidy (the "cliff").
- 65+: Medigap/Part D/OOP
- Medicare costs besides Part B. Part B and any IRMAA surcharge are added for you. Someone on SSDI moves to Medicare costs 24 months after SSDI starts, at any age (no ACA subsidy then).
- Healthcare inflation above CPI (%)
- Healthcare costs usually rise faster than other prices. 2 means 2% faster than inflation.
- Long-term care cost / Care starts at age / Years of care / Who needs care
- Help with daily living late in life (home aides, assisted living, nursing home). Enter a yearly cost in today's money (a nursing home is often $100,000+ a year; home help $60,000+), the age care starts and how many years it lasts. 0 = no long-term care. "Each person" plans it for both of you, one after the other by age.
- Pay for care by selling the home when care starts
- Sells your main home in the year care starts; the money goes into savings and helps pay for care. You then no longer pay home costs.
Retirement spending phases
Many retirees spend more early on (travel) and less later. Only expenses ticked Phased change.
- Spending once retired (% of today's expenses)
- Many people spend less once they stop working (no commuting, no saving). 80 = your expenses drop to 80% from the year you retire. 100 = no change.
- How spending falls
- In steps (default) uses the go-go, slow-go and no-go settings below. A little every year follows financial planner Ty Bernicke's finding that real retirees spend somewhat less each year as they age: phased expenses drop by the yearly % you set (default 1.5% after inflation) from the first retirement year, but never below half.
- Yearly drop for "a little every year"
- For example 1.5 = each year spend 1.5% less (in today's money) than the year before.
- Go-go years end at age
- Until this age, spending is 100%. Default 75.
- Slow-go years end at age
- Default 85.
- Slow-go spending (% of go-go)
- For example 85 = spend 85% of the go-go level.
- No-go spending (% of go-go)
- After slow-go, for example 70.
Custom tax regime
Only shown when Tax regime is "Custom".
- Brackets
- Pairs of "top of band:rate%", separated by commas. Example:
40000:15, 100000:25, inf:35means 15% up to 40,000, 25% up to 100,000, and 35% above. - Personal allowance
- Income each person can earn tax-free.
- Capital gains inclusion (%)
- The share of investment gains that is taxed. 50 = half.
- Tax-free share of pension draws (%)
- For example 25 if a quarter of pension withdrawals is tax-free.
- Currency code
- For example EUR. Changes the money symbol.
Accounts & balances
One row per account. Click + Add for a new row and ✕ to remove one.
- Name
- Anything, for example "Work 401(k)".
- Type
- Taxable = a normal brokerage account. Traditional (401k/IRA) = taxed when you withdraw. Roth = tax-free when you withdraw. HSA = health savings account. Cash = savings and checking. Outside the US, the names change (pension, ISA/TFSA and so on).
- Owner
- Whose account it is. This matters for ages, contributions and required withdrawals.
- Balance
- What is in it today.
- Contrib/yr
- What you put in each year, in today's money, while the owner works.
- Employer match/yr
- What your employer adds each year.
- Stocks %
- Share invested in stocks (the rest is bonds). Type 60 for 60%. Check your fund mix if unsure. Target-date funds are often 50 to 90.
- Basis %
- Only for taxable accounts. The share of the balance that is money you put in, rather than gains. 100 = no gains yet. 70 = 30% of the balance is gains (taxed when sold).
- IRS limit
- Which legal contribution limit applies: 401(k)/403(b), IRA, HSA or None.
- Fee %
- This account's yearly fee, such as 0.5. Blank uses the plan-wide fee.
- Dividends + interest (%/yr) / Qualified share (%) / Bonds / interest are
- Only for taxable and cash accounts (greyed out for others, because IRAs, 401(k)s, Roth and HSA income is not taxed each year). Dividends + interest: what the account pays out each year as a % of its value. Blank = worked out from its stock % (stocks pay the dividend yield, bonds the bond return); a cash account pays the cash yield. Check your fund's "SEC yield" or "distribution yield" if you know it. Qualified share: blank = automatic. Bonds / interest are: Taxable (corporate bonds, bank interest), US Treasuries (no state income tax on the interest) or Municipal (munis) (no federal tax; the app assumes in-state munis, so no state tax either, but the interest still counts for Social Security taxation, IRMAA and the ACA, as the law says; munis pay less, see the muni ratio). Under each row a line shows about how much the account pays now and how much is qualified.
- Increase by (% of salary per yr) / Up to (% of salary)
- Automatic contribution increases, like a 401(k) "auto-escalation" feature. Example: you put in $6,000 of an $80,000 salary (7.5%). Increase by 1 and Up to 15 raises it by 1 point of salary each year: 8.5%, 9.5% … until it reaches 15% of your salary, then stays there. Blank "Up to" means 15. Contributions grow with your salary as well. If you already contribute the cap or more, nothing changes. The IRS limit you picked still applies, so contributions never go above the legal maximum (the app warns when the limit cuts them). Needs a salary for the owner. Under each account a short line says what it will do.
- Inherited IRA? / Year the original owner died / Original owner had started RMDs
- Only for a traditional (pre-tax) account you inherited from someone other than your spouse. A spouse can usually treat the account as their own instead; then leave this as "No, my own". Choose a rule:
- Inherited: take evenly over 10 years: the whole account must be empty by the end of the 10th year after the year of death. The app takes it out in roughly equal pieces, which usually keeps the tax bracket lower.
- Inherited: 10-year rule (least each year): takes only what is required. If the original owner had already started RMDs (tick the box), you must also take a yearly minimum based on your own life expectancy. Otherwise nothing is required until year 10, when it all comes out (often a big tax bill).
- Inherited: stretch: a spouse who keeps it as an inherited IRA, minor children of the owner (until 21), disabled or chronically ill people, and people not more than 10 years younger than the owner can take it out slowly over their own life expectancy.
On / off switch: incomes, expenses and events each have an On box. Untick it to leave a row out of every projection without deleting it, for example to see your plan without the inheritance. Ticked again, it is back.
Pensions, annuities & other income
- Name / Type
- For example "Teacher pension", type Pension. Types: Pension, Annuity, Part-time work, Other rental, Other.
- Owner
- Who receives it. Start and end ages are this person's ages.
- Amount/yr
- Yearly amount, before tax. Whether it is in today's money or in future dollars depends on Yearly raise (see the table below).
- Start age / End age
- When it starts and stops (owner's ages). Leave End age blank for a lifetime pension. If a Survivor % is set and the plan has a spouse, End age is greyed out and not used, because the pension pays for life.
- Yearly raise (cost of living)
- How the payment grows each year: with inflation, not at all, by a fixed %, or with inflation up to a cap. Most private pensions never rise; Social Security and many government pensions rise with inflation. See Cost-of-living types. Plans saved before this change had a COLA tick box: ticked becomes "Rises with inflation", unticked becomes "Never rises", so results are unchanged.
- Raise or cap (%/yr)
- Only used by the "fixed %" and "up to a cap" choices (greyed out otherwise). For example 2 for a pension that rises 2% a year, or 3 for one that follows inflation but never by more than 3%.
- Taxable
- Tick if income tax is due (true for most pensions).
- Survivor %
- The share your spouse keeps after the owner dies, for example 50 or 100. Above 0, the pension pays for the owner's life, then this % to the spouse for the rest of the spouse's life, with the same COLA as the original. A line under the row shows it, for example "Pays for life, then 100% to Samantha: $8,292/yr → $8,292/yr to Samantha after Alex dies." 0 = it stops when the owner dies (or at End age). Older plans that had an End age at or before the owner's life expectancy now work this way automatically.
SSI (Supplemental Security Income) is not Social Security. It is a needs-based payment with income and asset limits, so add it here as type Other, untick Taxable (SSI is not taxed), and give it an end age if your savings or income would make you ineligible.
Expenses by category (today's money/yr)
Your yearly living costs. Do not include healthcare (entered above), mortgage, property tax or upkeep (entered under Real estate), loan payments (Debts) or taxes (calculated for you).
- Category
- For example "Food" or "Travel".
- Amount/yr
- Yearly cost in today's money.
- From age / To age
- Your ages. Blank = always.
- When
- Always, only while Working, or only once Retired. Example: commuting = Working; travel = Retired.
- Essential
- Tick for needs (food, utilities). Flexible strategies never cut these.
- Phased
- Tick for wants that shrink with age (travel). Uses the spending phases.
One-time & recurring events
- Name / Type
- For example "New car", type Car.
- At age (first time)
- Your age when it happens (the first time, if it repeats).
- Amount each time (±)
- Negative for a cost (−40000), positive for money coming in (+100000 inheritance).
- How often
- One time (the default) or Repeats.
- Every N years / How many times
- Used only with Repeats (greyed out for One time). A car every 10 years, 3 times = ages 60, 70, 80. College for 4 years = every 1 year, 4 times = ages 51, 52, 53, 54.
- Summary line
- Under each event a plain-English line shows what will happen, for example "Cost: $50,000 once, at age 60." or "Cost: $50,000 at ages 60, 70, 80 (3 times, $150,000 total in today's dollars)." Check it after editing.
- Older plans
- Plans saved before this change had "For years". On load or import, 1 becomes One time and a bigger number becomes Repeats every 1 year, that many times, so results stay the same.
- Amount grows
- The same cost-of-living choices as for income. "Rises with inflation" (the default) means the amount is in today's money; "Never rises" means exactly that many dollars, for example a fixed tuition bill or a loan payoff. Older plans' "Today's $" tick box is converted automatically.
- Raise or cap (%/yr)
- Used only by the fixed-% and capped choices, for example a cost known to rise 5% a year.
- Taxable
- Tick if income tax is due on money coming in (for example a bonus; usually not an inheritance).
Real estate (home purchase, sale, rentals)
Your home and any other property. Amounts are in today's money.
- Name
- For example "Home".
- Value
- What it is worth today (or, for a future purchase, its price in today's money).
- Apprec. %
- Yearly growth in value, for example 3.
- Mortgage
- Loan balance today (or the loan you will take for a future purchase).
- Rate %
- Mortgage interest rate, for example 6.5.
- Payment/mo
- Monthly principal and interest. Blank = calculated from the loan term.
- Costs %
- Yearly property tax plus upkeep as a % of value. 1.5 is typical. Half is treated as property tax.
- Rent/yr
- Rental income if you rent it out.
- Buy age
- Your age when you buy. Blank, 0, or an age in the past = you already own it: enter today's value and today's mortgage balance, and no down payment is charged. The dashboard shows a blue ℹ note such as "Home: bought at age 50 (2024), so it's already yours" to confirm this; it is information, not a problem. A future age = you buy it at the start of that year. The down payment (value − mortgage) and closing costs come from your accounts.
- Sell age
- Your age when you sell. Blank or 0 = keep it. When sold, the loan is paid off and the money left over is saved.
- Loan term (yrs, from purchase)
- The loan's original length, for example 30, counted from the buy age. Used only when Payment is blank. For a home you already own, the years left are worked out for you: term − (your age now − buy age). Example: a 30-year loan taken at 50, when you are 52, has 28 years left, and the payment pays off today's balance over those 28 years. If Buy age is blank or 0, the term is taken as the years left from today. If the term has already run out but a balance is entered, you get a warning and the balance is repaid in the first year; enter the monthly payment instead.
- Closing costs %
- Buying costs, for example 2.
- Selling costs %
- Agent and other selling costs, for example 6.
- Cost basis (if owned)
- What you paid plus improvements. Used to work out taxable gain when you sell. Blank = today's value (assumes no gain so far).
- Primary home
- Your main home gets up to $250,000 (single) or $500,000 (married) of gain tax-free. Auto = yes unless it has rent.
- Credit line
- HELOC or Reverse mortgage (HECM): a backup source of money used only if investments run out.
- HELOC max LTV % / Credit rate % / Reverse from age
- How much of the home value you can borrow, the interest rate, and the youngest age for a reverse mortgage (62+).
Holdings (for fee & allocation analysis)
Optional. List the funds inside your accounts to see fees and mix.
- Account
- Must exactly match an account Name above.
- Holding / Asset class / Value
- Fund name, its type (US stocks, International stocks, REIT, Bonds, Cash) and current value.
- Expense ratio %
- The fund's yearly fee, from its fact sheet, for example 0.03.
Debts
- Name / Balance / Rate % / Payment/mo
- Car loans, student loans, credit cards. Monthly payments are made until the debt is paid off.
Stress tests (bad years forced into every projection)
A stress test replaces the market return, or inflation, for chosen years in every projection: the average-returns line on the Dashboard, every Monte Carlo future and every historical replay. Use it to ask "would my plan survive this?" for a specific bad event.
- On
- Untick to keep the row but switch it off.
- What
- Stock return, bond return, cash yield or inflation.
- % per year
- The return for each of those years, before inflation: −30 means you lose 30% that year, 0 means flat. For inflation, the yearly price rise (8 = prices up 8% a year).
- For how many years / Starting / Years after, age or year
- "Years after I retire" with 0 = the year you retire (the riskiest time for a crash). "At my age" uses your age; "In calendar year" a year such as 2030.
The buttons under the list add ready-made tests: Crash when I retire (stocks −30% for one year), Lost decade (stocks flat for ten years, like 2000–2009) and 1970s-style inflation (8% inflation and 2% bond returns for ten years).
Try this: add "Crash when I retire", then compare the Dashboard with and without it (untick On). If the plan only fails with the crash, a cash reserve, a flexible spending method or a "back to work" fallback can protect you. Check it did what you expected: the Dashboard's year-by-year table should show the investment drop in your retirement year.
Limitation: the stressed years replace whatever the random or historical path had for those years; the years around them are unchanged, so a crash is not followed by the rebound that often comes after one.
Income annuities you plan to buy (immediate, deferred, QLAC)
An income annuity turns a lump sum into a paycheck for life: you pay an insurance company once (the "premium") and it pays you every year for as long as you live, however long that is. It protects against outliving your money, but you give up the lump sum: nothing is left for heirs (unless you buy extras this app does not model).
- Owner / Buy at age
- Whose life the payments follow, and that person's age at purchase.
- Premium (today's money)
- How much you pay. It is taken from savings in the year you buy.
- Paid from
- Savings, in withdrawal order takes cash first, then taxable, then traditional IRA/401(k), then Roth. Money from a traditional account buys the annuity inside the IRA: no tax when you buy, and every payment is taxed as income. Money from cash or a taxable account: part of each payment is a tax-free return of your premium (the "exclusion ratio"). Money from a Roth: payments are tax-free. If the chosen account does not have enough, a smaller annuity is bought and a note explains why.
- QLAC
- A "qualified longevity annuity contract": a deferred annuity bought with IRA/401(k) money, up to $210,000 in 2026 (IRS limit, rising with inflation), that must start paying by 85. The money in it does not count for required withdrawals (RMDs) until then. Ticking QLAC caps the premium and always uses traditional money.
- Payments start age
- Blank = straight away (an "immediate" annuity). A later age makes it a deferred annuity, which pays much more per year once it starts.
- Payout %/yr
- If you have a quote, enter the yearly income divided by the premium (for example 7 for $7,000 a year on $100,000). Blank = an estimate from US life tables, a 4.5% insurer yield and 10% insurer costs. The line under the row shows the estimate. Real quotes vary by insurer and by interest rates, so get quotes before deciding.
- Rises with inflation / Survivor %
- An inflation-linked annuity starts lower but keeps its buying power. Survivor % (for couples) is how much continues to the spouse after the owner dies; the estimate lowers the payout to pay for it.
Try this: on the Dashboard, turn on the what-if Buy an income annuity with 25% of savings at retirement. It usually lowers what you leave to heirs but makes running out of money less likely, especially with a long life. Look at the "Rich, broke or no longer alive" chart on the Monte Carlo tab to see the trade-off.
Back to work if savings fall
Many people have a fallback in mind: "if the market crashes, I'll go back to work for a while." This rule puts that in the plan so you can see how much it helps and how likely you are to need it.
- Use this rule
- Off by default.
- Start work if savings fall below
- A share of your savings (in today's money) on the day you retired. 75 = when a quarter of it is gone.
- Earnings while back at work / For how many years
- Yearly pay before tax, in today's money, and for how long. It is taxed like wages and paid to you (person 1).
- Not past age
- The rule only starts if the whole stint ends by this age.
It happens at most once per future. On the Monte Carlo tab, Back to work needed shows the share of futures in which it kicks in. If that is high, the fallback is not a fallback: it is part of the plan.
Cost-of-living types
Used by Pensions, annuities & other income and by Events. "Today's money" means: type what it would be worth now, and the app raises it with inflation until it starts.
| Choice | What the app does | Typical use |
|---|---|---|
| Rises with inflation | Amount in today's money; rises with prices every year. | Social Security, US federal and military pensions, most living costs. |
| Never rises (fixed dollars) | Exactly this many dollars every year. | Most private company pensions, fixed annuities, a loan payment. |
| Rises a fixed % each year | Dollars at the first payment, then up by the % you enter. | Pensions with a set yearly raise (for example 2%), a cost known to rise 5% a year. |
| Rises with inflation, up to a cap | Today's money until it starts; after that it follows inflation but never by more than the cap in a year. | Many state and local government pensions (often capped at 2–3%), UK pensions in payment. |
| Today's money, then fixed once it starts | Grows with inflation until the first payment, then stays flat. | A pension estimate quoted in today's money that has no raise once paid. |
| Today's money, then a fixed % once it starts | Grows with inflation until the first payment, then by the % you enter. | The same, for a pension with a set yearly raise. |
Why it matters: at 2.5% inflation a fixed $20,000 pension buys only about $12,000 of today's goods after 20 years.
5. Dashboard
Your plan at a glance.
- Status line (coloured): green "✓ On track" (85% or more), amber "⚠ Borderline" (70–85%), red "✗ At risk" (below 70%). It also says whether, with average returns, money lasts through life expectancy or at what age it runs short.
- Warnings (⚠ lines) about inputs that look odd. See Every warning.
- Chance of success: see Reading your chance of success.
- Money lasts: with average returns, how long savings last after retiring ("Whole plan", or years and months until money runs short).
- Net worth at retirement: everything you own (savings, investments, your home and other property) minus everything you owe, including the mortgage. "The year you retire" means the first year everyone in the household has stopped work; the box shows that year and your ages. It follows the "today's money / future dollars" switch and the optimistic / average / pessimistic switch.
- Portfolio at retirement: only the money you can draw from to live on, in the same year as the net-worth box: cash and savings, brokerage (taxable) accounts, pre-tax accounts (401(k), traditional IRA, inherited IRA), Roth accounts and HSAs. It leaves out your home and other real estate, cars and other belongings, and it does not subtract the mortgage. An annuity you have bought is not counted, because you can't withdraw it; you get its payments instead. The small line underneath shows what share of your net worth this is. It follows the same two switches. The figure also appears in the printable report, and in the results bar on the other tabs on wider screens (on phones it is left out to keep the bar small). See Portfolio vs net worth in the glossary.
- Retirement spending, year 1: first-year spending (living, health, housing and debt, and events), not counting taxes.
- Lifetime taxes: all income taxes over the plan, in today's money.
- Net legacy (after estate tax): what your heirs would get with average returns, after estate tax and their income tax on pre-tax accounts. The "median MC" is the middle result of the random runs.
- Monte Carlo range (end): the bad-luck (10th percentile) to good-luck (90th percentile) range of what is left at the end.
- Results bar (under the tabs, on every tab): your chance of success, money left at the end, your portfolio at retirement and lifetime taxes. It updates a moment after you change any input, so you can see the effect while you type. On the Dashboard it shows only the two switches, as the tiles are already there.
- Show money in (results bar): Today's dollars takes out inflation so amounts compare with prices now; Future dollars shows the actual amounts in those years. It applies to all tabs.
- Market returns (results bar): Average, Optimistic or Pessimistic switches the whole plan between your three assumption sets. Compare assumption sets shows all three side by side.
- Year-by-year table: every number for every year. Show picks a ready-made view (Everything, Income, Taxes, Spending, Balances); Choose columns lets you tick the columns you want and Save view keeps that choice under a name. Years across turns the table so years are columns. Click any federal or state tax amount to see how it is worked out: income, AGI, deduction, each bracket, gains, NIIT and penalties, step by step. Download CSV always has every column. Columns for dividends and interest, NIIT, self-employment tax and the QBI deduction appear when your plan has them.
- Calculators (fold-out card): How much more to save to reach a savings goal: the same amount each year (goal ÷ the growth of yearly savings), an amount rising with pay, or one lump sum today, all in today's money. A payout that lasts: what a balance can pay each year for 5 to 35 years, level or rising with inflation (standard annuity formulas).
- Net worth by account: how each account type grows and shrinks. The "Home equity" layer is your home value minus the loan.
- Cash flow: bars are money coming in each year (wages, Social Security, pensions, withdrawals and so on). The red line is spending plus taxes.
- What if…?: one-click ideas, tried on a copy of your plan. Your saved plan doesn't change until you click Make this change.
- Work part-time 3 more years: each person with a salary earns 40% of today's pay (rising with inflation, taxed as ordinary income) for 3 years from their retirement age, or from now if they have already retired.
- Cut spending 10%: every expense row 10% lower, before and after retirement.
- Cut retirement spending 20%: "Spending once retired" goes down to 80% of what it was. If your retirement spending comes from a withdrawal strategy (guardrails, VPW and so on) rather than your expense list, both spending cuts mostly lower the essential floor, and the result line says so.
- Retire 3 years earlier / later: moves the retirement age of each person who hasn't retired yet. Someone who has already retired, or retires this year, is left alone. Earlier retirement can't go below your age today.
- Convert $150,000 to Roth over 3 years: $50,000 a year (today's money) from the first person's retirement age, or from now. This replaces any Roth conversion setting you have.
- Downsize the home at 65: sells your main home when the first person turns 65 and buys a smaller one for cash. The smaller home costs 60% of the old home's expected sale price, worked out with its growth rate. It isn't offered if you have no home, it is already sold by 65, or you are already 65.
- Social Security cut 17% from 2034: turns on the Social Security cut setting.
- Stocks fall 30% the year you retire: a one-year −30% stock return in the year everyone in the household has retired, or this year if you already have.
- Buy an income annuity with 25% of savings at retirement: an immediate annuity, bought with a quarter of the savings you have at the start of the first person's retirement year. It is paid from savings in withdrawal order, the payments don't rise with inflation, and for couples it keeps paying the survivor in full.
- Where the money goes: a flow picture for one year. Left: money coming in (pay, Social Security, pensions, required withdrawals, money taken from savings). Right: where it goes (taxes, living costs, healthcare, home, debts, one-time costs, giving, savings). Thicker bands mean more money. Use the slider to choose the year. Hover a band to see the exact amount.
- Plan checklist: which parts of the plan you have filled in. Click an open item to go to it. "If any" items (pensions, home, debts, one-time costs) count as done once you add a row; skip them if they don't apply.
- Milestones: key dates in order: each retirement, Social Security start (with the monthly amount), Medicare at 65, pension starts, required withdrawals (RMDs), mortgage payoff (with the monthly amount it frees up), home sale and long-term care. Monthly amounts are in today's dollars.
- Healthcare costs over your lifetime: totals in today's dollars for the working years, retirement before 65 (after any ACA credit), Medicare from 65 (Part B, the IRMAA high-income surcharge, and Part D/Medigap/out-of-pocket), and long-term care.
- Spending by category: where the money goes each year.
- Year-by-year table (click to open): every number, every year. Negative numbers are red.
- Withdrawals is money taken from accounts.
- Surplus spent is leftover income treated as spent (when "Unspent income while working" is "Spent").
- Bracket is the federal tax rate on your next dollar.
- Shortfall is money the plan could not find. Any shortfall means the plan failed that year.
Quick Check (income replacement)
The box at the top of the Dashboard answers one simple question: will my retirement income replace enough of my pay?
- Projected % = yearly retirement income in today's money ÷ your current household salary (both people's salaries if you plan as a couple). Before tax.
- Retirement income = Social Security at your planned claiming ages (or SSDI) + pensions, annuities and rental income + a withdrawal from savings (by default 4% of what your accounts hold when the last person stops working). It is measured in the first year everyone is collecting Social Security.
- Income target (% of salary): default 80, a common rule of thumb (you no longer save for retirement or pay payroll tax). Change it to 70 or 100 if that suits you. Withdrawal rate: default 4.
- The big banner says ON TRACK (green) when Projected is at or above Target, otherwise NOT ON TRACK (red) with the yearly shortfall. Two bars compare Target and Projected.
- It shows "n/a" with a reason when nobody has a salary or nobody retires within the plan.
- This is a rough check. The chance of success below it is the fuller test, because it counts taxes, market ups and downs, and your actual spending. The two can disagree: someone who spends little can be fine below 80%.
Next steps
Click Work out next steps. In a few seconds the app tries ideas on your plan and lists them with the effect on your chance of success, biggest first. Ideas include: save $5,000 more a year, retire 2 years later, claim Social Security at 70, the yearly spending that reaches the 85% goal, a little more or less in stocks, and cheaper funds (when fees are above 0.25%). If your plan is already very safe (95%+), it suggests what you could afford instead, such as retiring 2 years earlier or spending more. Each idea is tested on its own with the same 100 simulated futures, so the comparison is fair (the numbers can differ slightly from the 500-run figure). Nothing is changed in your plan; use Plan inputs to apply what you like. Changing the plan clears the list.
6. Monte Carlo & history tab
Real markets go up and down. This tab tests your plan against many possible futures.
- Method
- Monte Carlo (random returns) makes up random yearly returns using your averages and volatility. Historical rolling periods (1928–2025) replays real market history, starting in each past year; when it reaches 2025 it wraps around to 1928. Historical block bootstrap stitches together random chunks of real history.
- Block length (yrs)
- Chunk size for the bootstrap, for example 10.
- Runs
- How many futures to test. 1000 is plenty.
- Seed
- A number that fixes the random draws. The same seed gives the same result, so you can compare changes fairly.
- Run simulation
- Runs it. You see chance of success, median, 10th and 90th percentile ending net worth.
- Percentile fan chart
- The shaded bands show the range of outcomes over time. The middle line is the median (half do better, half worse). The bottom band edge is the 10th percentile (1 in 10 do worse).
- Maximum sustainable spending
- Pick a Success target and click Solve. It finds how much you could scale all your expenses up or down and still meet that target.
- Lifetime consumption smoothing
- Finds the highest steady yearly "fun money" (on top of essentials) your money supports, leaving the Legacy to leave you choose. Apply to plan switches your strategy to smoothing.
- Replay a historical sequence
- Pick a Start year to see how your plan would have done if you had retired then (for example 1966, a famously hard start). The table lists the worst start years.
- Method: Steady average returns: one run with the average return every year and no ups and downs. Useful as a baseline.
- History from year … to …: for the two historical methods, use only start years in this range (for example 1966–1982 to test a bad stretch).
- Money lasts: with average returns, how long savings last after retiring, in years and months, or "the whole plan". The same figure is a tile on the Dashboard.
- Spending each year: the range of yearly spending (today's money) across futures, plus four numbers: typical yearly spending, the lowest year in a typical future, the lowest year with bad luck (1 in 10 futures is worse), and the chance of a big cut (some year more than 25% below the typical spending for that year, or money running short).
- Download every run (CSV): one row per simulated future (or historical start year): did money last, savings left, lowest savings, spending figures and the first short age. Opens in any spreadsheet.
- What would it take?: type the chance of success you want. Savings needed today finds how much your accounts would need to hold now (keeping their mix). Earliest retirement moves everyone's retirement age earlier or later by the same number of years until the target is met. Uses 200 futures per try.
- Maximum sustainable spending now accepts 95%, 80% or any % you type.
When it goes wrong: how bad?
A chance of success counts a future as failed even if it runs short by $1 in the very last year, and counts it as a success even if a flexible spending method had to cut spending in half. This card looks at how much of your planned retirement spending is actually paid:
- Planned spending paid (typical future): over all retirement years, in the middle future. 100% = everything you planned was paid. Planned spending is what you entered (with fixed spending and average returns); health, home, debt and one-time costs count as planned, and only living costs can be cut by a flexible method.
- Planned spending paid (bad luck): the same for a future near the bottom (1 in 10 is worse).
- Average shortfall when it fails: in the futures that ran short, the share of planned spending that went unpaid. 5% means a near miss; 40% means a hard landing.
- Overall: green ("Solid") only when the chance of success is 85% or more and the typical future pays at least 90% of planned spending.
- The chart: red bars count the futures that first run short in each year (late bars are milder than early ones). The blue line is the share of planned spending paid in the typical future, year by year.
- With Historical rolling periods, the start years that ran short are drawn as thin red lines on the fan chart above.
Try this: switch the withdrawal strategy to Guyton-Klinger guardrails and run again. The chance of success usually goes up, but "planned spending paid" goes down. That is the price of flexibility.
If you use Back to work if savings fall, the results add Back to work needed: the share of futures in which savings fell far enough for the rule to start.
Safe withdrawal rate by start year
Click Work it out on the Highest safe withdrawal rate for each historical start year card (it takes about 15 seconds). For each year in history (1928 onward), it asks: if you had retired that year, what is the highest share of your savings you could have spent in the first year, then kept the same amount (raised with inflation), and still never run out? It uses your plan: your accounts and their mix, Social Security, pensions, taxes and plan length, and the real history of US stocks, bonds and inflation from that year on. Your planned living expenses are replaced by that withdrawal (with no spending floor or ceiling), because the whole point is to find the spending level.
- Each bar is one start year. Red bars are years where your plan's first-year withdrawal rate (shown as a line, also in the text) would have failed. Pale bars are start years too recent to have a full history: the missing years are filled by wrapping around to 1928, so they are less reliable.
- The text shows the worst start year and its rate (usually around 1966 or 1929), the typical rate and how many start years your own rate would have survived.
- These figures assume perfect knowledge of that one history. You do not get to know which history you are in, so do not plan to spend the best or typical figure.
Try this: change the stock share of your accounts and run it again. A very low or very high stock share usually lowers the worst-case rate. Check it: the famous "4% rule" came from this kind of test on a 30-year, 50/50 plan without taxes. Your result will differ because your plan has taxes, other income and its own length.
Safe floor and upside
Click Work it out on the Safe floor and upside card. This is an idea from economics-based planning: separate what you can count on from what depends on markets.
- Safe floor: the yearly spending (today's money, on top of your essential expenses, using the smooth-spending method) your plan could keep up even if every stock you own became worthless in the first year, and bonds and cash only earned 1% above inflation after that. It is deliberately harsh.
- With average returns: the same, if returns were the averages you entered every year.
- Upside spread: for each simulated future, the steady spending level that future would have allowed. The bars and the Bad luck (1 in 10), Middle future and Good luck (1 in 10) figures show the spread. These also assume perfect foresight (each figure knows its own future in advance), so the real level you can safely set is lower than the middle figure.
A plan whose safe floor covers the spending you really cannot cut is sturdy. If the floor is near zero, more of your lifestyle depends on markets; guaranteed income (delaying Social Security, an annuity) or more bonds raise the floor.
Try this: under Plan inputs, set every account's stock share to 0 and run it again: the floor goes up and the upside narrows. Check it: the floor can never be higher than the average-returns level.
What's left at the end
A bar chart of how much savings is left at the end of the plan across all futures (today's dollars; red = ran out), and the share of futures that end with less than at retirement, at least double, or at least five times as much. Type an amount in I'd like to leave at least to see the chance of leaving that much (bars at or above it turn green).
Rich, broke or no longer alive
Most plans assume you live to a fixed age. In reality you might not, or you might live longer. This chart combines the simulated futures with the US Social Security Administration's 2023 period life table (the table used in the 2026 Trustees Report; a public government table). For each year after retirement it stacks the chance that the household (at least one of you) is alive and short of money (red), alive with less than at retirement (yellow), alive with 1–2, 2–5 or more than 5 times the savings at retirement (blues), or no longer alive (grey).
- Chance of running short while still alive weights each year's chance of first running short by the chance that someone is still alive then. It is usually lower than 100% minus the chance of success, which assumes everyone lives to the plan's end.
- Health scales the death rates: Excellent ×0.7 (longer lives), Poor ×1.5. Set gender under Plan inputs → People; when it is blank, a male/female average is used.
- These are population averages, not a forecast for you. Many people who plan carefully live longer than average, so keep your plan's end age generous.
What return would I need?
On the Monte Carlo tab. Enter the chance of success you want (default 90%). The app moves the average return of stocks and bonds up or down by the same amount, re-runs 200 random futures each time (always the same ones, so the comparison is fair) and finds the smallest change that reaches your target. It shows the stock and bond returns needed and what your mix would earn a year, before and after inflation. Volatility stays the same.
Check it: type the stock and bond returns it shows into Market assumptions; the chance of success on the Monte Carlo tab (500 futures) should land within a few points of your target.
What matters most? Sensitivity map
The map changes two inputs at once (for example retirement age across and spending down) and reruns the plan for every pair: 49 squares. Each square shows the chance of success, the share of planned spending paid in a bad-luck future (the 10th percentile), or the savings left at the end. Greener is better. Every square uses the same simulated markets, so differences come only from the two inputs. The square with the thick border is closest to your plan today.
- Across / Down: retirement age (years earlier or later), spending (% of today's), stocks share, returns (± points), yearly saving, inflation, Social Security claiming age, or the withdrawal rate of the 4% rule.
- Markets: random futures, or every historical start year since 1928.
- Classic study: the button sets withdrawal rate × stock share with history, the layout made famous by the 1998 "Trinity study" of US professors. Unlike that study, it uses the length of your plan and your taxes, so the numbers differ.
- Click a square, or move with the arrow keys and press Enter, to copy those two settings into your plan. "Retirement age" and "returns" move relative to the current plan, so applying twice moves twice.
Try this: draw retirement age × spending. If the colours change a lot from left to right but little from top to bottom, working longer helps you more than spending less. That tells you which lever to pull first.
It takes 10–40 seconds (49 squares × the futures per square). Use Stop to cancel; the page stays usable while it runs.
7. Reading your chance of success
- What it means: "85%" means that in 85 out of 100 tested futures, you never ran out of money for your planned spending.
- It does not mean a 15% chance of being broke. In most "failed" futures, you would cut spending a little in later years and be fine. It is a warning light, not a forecast.
- What is a good number? Many planners aim for 75% to 90%. Below 70% deserves attention. 99–100% may mean you could spend more or retire earlier.
- Average-returns result vs. success %: they can differ a lot. Average returns ignore bad luck early in retirement. That early timing matters a great deal ("sequence risk").
How to improve it
- Work 1–2 years longer, or retire part-time (add "Part-time work" under income).
- Spend a little less, especially early in retirement. Mark wants as Phased.
- Delay Social Security (see the Social Security tab).
- Save more now, or capture the full employer match.
- Lower fees (see Holdings & fees).
- Use a flexible strategy such as guardrails.
- Plan to sell or downsize a home, or keep a HELOC or reverse mortgage as a backup.
- Check your inputs. Repeated events, high fees or a "real" salary growth that is too high can distort results.
8. Social Security tab
- Benefit estimates: for each person, the monthly benefit (today's money) if claimed at 62, at full retirement age (FRA, 67 for most), at 70, and at your planned age. Claiming early cuts the check for life; each year of waiting after FRA adds 8%.
- PIA is your benefit at FRA. FRA is your full retirement age.
- Claiming-age optimizer: compares every pair of claiming ages using your life expectancies, spousal and survivor benefits. Real discount rate (%) says how much you value money now over later (0 to 3 is common). Apply best copies the best ages into your plan.
- The grid shows lifetime household benefits in thousands, today's money. Rows are the first person, columns the second.
- Working while collecting before FRA can hold back some benefits (the "earnings test"). The plan models this and pays it back at FRA.
- People on SSDI show their SSDI amount instead of the 62/FRA/70 columns, and the optimizer keeps them fixed (SSDI has no claiming decision). It only compares the other person's claiming ages.
Compare claiming ages
Three cards at the top of the tab: Your current plan, Your choice (pick an age from 62 to 70 for each person) and Pays the most in total (the ages that give your household the most over your expected lifetimes, counting spousal and survivor benefits, without discounting). Each card shows each person's monthly amount and start age, total household benefits for life, and what would be left in savings at the end. The chart shows the running total of benefits by age; the line that ends highest paid most. Use these ages in my plan copies them into Plan inputs. Amounts are in today's dollars.
SSDI and SSI
- SSDI (Social Security Disability Insurance) is paid at your full PIA, with no reduction for starting early. Tick Receiving SSDI, enter the monthly amount and the start age. Any age from 18 works, including "already receiving".
- At full retirement age SSDI converts automatically to a retirement benefit of the same amount. You do not apply. No delayed credits are added after that.
- SSDI is taxed the same way as Social Security (up to 85% taxable, depending on income; state rules apply).
- There is no earnings test for SSDI, but work is limited by substantial gainful activity (SGA). In 2026 SGA is $1,690/month ($20,280/yr), or $2,830/month if statutorily blind. The plan warns if wages while on SSDI are above this. Earning more usually ends SSDI after the trial work period.
- Medicare starts after 24 months of SSDI, at any age. The plan switches that person to Medicare costs then.
- Spouse and survivor: a spouse aged 62+ can get up to 50% of the SSDI worker's PIA (reduced if taken before their FRA). A widow(er) gets the SSDI worker's full benefit. If the SSDI recipient is widowed, the plan switches them to the larger survivor benefit at their FRA. Not modeled: benefits for children, a spouse caring for a child under 16, the disability family maximum, and disabled-widow(er) benefits from age 50.
- SSI (Supplemental Security Income) is needs-based and not Social Security. It has strict income and asset limits. Enter it under Other income as non-taxable income, if at all.
Open Social Security (second opinion)
The Open in Open Social Security ↗ button opens opensocialsecurity.com, a free, independent tool for deciding when to claim, in a new tab. It is filled in from your plan: single or married, birth dates (January 1 when month/day are blank), gender (if set), benefit at full retirement age (PIA), SSDI, whether you already claim (claiming age at or below your current age), whether you still work and your salary, and the discount rate from the optimizer above. Your plan details go into that site's web address, so they are shared with it when you click. Add gender and birth month/day under Plan inputs → People for a more exact answer. That site's advice may differ from this app's optimizer because it uses its own life-expectancy tables.
Break-even table and chart
For each claiming age 62–70: the monthly benefit, the running total by 80, 85, 90 and 95, and the age at which claiming later "catches up" with claiming at 62 (usually about 77–80). If you expect to live past that age, waiting pays more in total. Today's money, without spousal or survivor benefits (the optimizer includes those). The chart shows the running totals for claiming at 62, 67 and 70.
Pension: lump sum or monthly? Single or joint?
At the bottom of the Social Security tab. If an employer offers you a lump sum instead of a monthly pension, or a choice between a single-life and a joint-and-survivor pension, type in both offers.
- Age when you choose: when the lump sum would be paid (usually when you leave the job or retire; it starts at your retirement age). All values are worked out at that age. If you add the lump sum to the plan, it becomes an IRA worth that amount discounted back to today at the return you entered.
- Break-even age: if you live past it, the monthly payments add up to more than the lump sum (after allowing for what the lump sum could have earned).
- Monthly payments are worth: the value today of the payments, weighted by the chance of being alive for each one (US life tables, so a population average).
- Lump sum could buy: an estimate of the monthly income an insurer would pay for the lump sum. If that is more than the pension, the lump-sum offer is generous; if less, the monthly pension is the better deal.
- Return you could earn: the key assumption. A higher return favours the lump sum, but it comes with market risk; the pension does not.
- Joint and survivor: compares what your spouse would receive (weighted by the chance they outlive you) with what you give up while you are both alive. "Pension maximization" (single life plus life insurance) only works if the insurance costs less than the amount shown.
- The buttons add your choice to the plan: the monthly pension as an income row (with its yearly raise), or the lump sum as a new traditional IRA (a direct rollover is not taxed).
Not modelled: taxes (similar either way if the lump sum is rolled over), the pension plan's own financial health and its insurance (in the US, the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation), and health-insurance benefits tied to the pension.
9. Taxes, RMDs & Roth tab
- Lifetime taxes, First RMD (first required withdrawal and its age), Years with IRMAA (years with Medicare surcharges), Highest bracket, ACA credits, QCDs, 72(t) SEPP draws, Gains harvested, and Contributions over IRS limits (money you planned to save above legal limits, which is not invested).
- Taxes, IRMAA and marginal rate chart: taxes by year and your tax bracket.
- RMDs and Roth conversions chart: required withdrawals (starting at 73 or 75 depending on birth year) and conversions. When one spouse dies, the survivor takes over their IRA/401(k) as their own, so required withdrawals carry on, based on the survivor's age.
- Tax optimizer: choose an aim (Leave the most to heirs, Pay the least tax or Let me spend the most each year) and Run optimizer. It tries every combination of withdrawal order, Roth conversion strategy and capital-gains harvesting (40, or 64 with Thorough).
- Holds up in bad markets too (on by default): each strategy is also run in 32 simulated futures, and ranked by half its average result plus half its result in the worst quarter. A strategy that only wins when markets are kind ranks lower.
- Simpler wins near-ties: if several strategies are within 0.5% of the best, the one with fewer moving parts (no conversions, no harvesting, your usual order) is listed first. The difference is smaller than the uncertainty in any forecast.
- Why it helps: plain-language reasons (how much is converted and at what ages, how much smaller required withdrawals get, Medicare surcharges, taxes and money to heirs). Each row has a Why? button.
- Check it did what you expected: after Apply, look at the Roth conversion and RMD columns in the year-by-year table on this tab.
- Estate & legacy: gross estate, federal and state estate tax, net legacy and lifetime giving. Few families owe federal estate tax ($15 million per person exemption in 2026).
- Roth conversion strategy explorer: compares no conversions with each bracket and IRMAA strategy. The highlighted row leaves the largest after-tax estate. Apply uses it.
Should I convert to Roth this year?
Choose an amount, a % of your traditional balance, or all of it, and click Check. You see:
- a verdict: Worth considering, Probably not worth it or About even, based on what you or your heirs end up with after all taxes (today's money);
- the extra tax this year, and a warning if it pushes you into a higher tax bracket or may raise Medicare premiums (IRMAA) two years later;
- the cost of paying the tax: what that tax money could have grown to if invested instead;
- the change in lifetime taxes.
After-tax (nondeductible) money in your IRAs: if you ever put money in a traditional IRA without a tax deduction, enter that total. The "pro-rata rule" then makes only part of each conversion taxable, and the result says how much.
RMD table
Each year with a required minimum distribution: the traditional balance at the start, the RMD in future dollars and in today's money, and the % of the balance it represents (it rises with age).
Roth 5-year clock
Roth money is not all equal before age 59½. Money you put in (contributions) can come out any time, tax- and penalty-free. Each conversion has its own 5-year clock: taking it out within 5 years (counting from January 1 of the conversion year) costs the 10% penalty, unless you are 59½. Growth (earnings) taken out before 59½ is taxed and penalized. The IRS treats withdrawals as coming out in that order: contributions first, then conversions oldest first, then earnings.
- The table lists each planned conversion, how long it must wait and the year it becomes free to use. A conversion made after 59½ never has to wait.
- If your plan takes Roth money before 59½ that is not yet free, a warning lists the years, the amounts and the estimated 10% penalty. The main projection does not charge this penalty, so treat the warning as a to-do: move those withdrawals to other accounts or later years.
- Roth money you already have at the start is assumed to be contributions (free to use). If part of it is earnings or recent conversions, early withdrawals may cost more than shown.
Try this: for an early retirement, set Roth conversions to "fill a bracket" from your retirement age. The clock shows the "Roth conversion ladder": each year's conversion becomes free 5 years later. You need other money (cash, a taxable account, 72(t)) to cover the first 5 years. Check it: a conversion made at 57 is free at 59½, not at 62.
Break-even tax rate for a Roth conversion
Converting traditional IRA or 401(k) money to a Roth means paying income tax now so that later withdrawals are tax-free. The break-even tax rate is the later tax rate at which converting and not converting come out the same. If you (or your heirs) would pay more than that later, converting helps. The method follows Vanguard's 2025 paper "A 'BETR' approach to Roth conversions"; the formulas are re-derived, and state tax and Medicare/insurance effects are added by this app.
- Amount to convert
- Defaults to this year's planned conversion, or $10,000.
- After-tax (basis) share of your IRAs
- If you made nondeductible IRA contributions (Form 8606), that share of any conversion is tax-free. More basis lowers the break-even rate.
- Tax rate on it today
- Filled in with the real extra tax on that amount this year from your plan: federal and state tax, extra Social Security becoming taxable, the Medicare surcharge two years later and lost health-insurance credit (see the tax torpedo below).
- Pay the tax from
- Cash lowers the break-even rate the most, because the cash would have earned little and been taxed; index funds a little less; The IRA itself means the tax is held back from the conversion, so the break-even rate equals today's rate (plus a 10% penalty on the part held back if you are under 59½).
- Years until the money is used / Yearly growth
- Filled in with the years until your plan first takes money out of traditional accounts, and a growth rate from your traditional accounts' stock/bond mix. Longer horizons make paying from outside money more powerful.
- Tax rate later
- What my plan projects uses the typical real tax rate on extra income in your required-withdrawal years; My heirs' rate uses the rate under Household & taxes (for money likely to be inherited); or type one.
- Then put this in a Roth each year
- Optional. If converting clears out your IRA so you can make "backdoor" Roth contributions, enter the yearly amount and number of years. This also lowers the break-even rate.
The verdict says "worth it" when the later rate is more than 1 point above the break-even rate, "a close call" within 1 point (consider converting a bit each year), and "not worth it" otherwise. The chart shows how the break-even rate falls with more years, for each way of paying the tax, against your expected later rate (dashed red). Limits: tax rates are estimates, one horizon is assumed, and selling investments to pay the tax is assumed to create no taxable gain.
What extra income really costs (the "tax torpedo")
Your federal bracket is not the true cost of extra income. Pick a year with the slider: the red line is the real share of each extra $1,000 that would go to tax that year, counting federal and state income tax, extra Social Security becoming taxable (it can make a 12% bracket cost 22% or more, the "tax torpedo"), the 3.8% investment-income tax, the Medicare premium surcharge two years later (IRMAA) and lost ACA health-insurance credit. The grey dashed line is the federal bracket alone. Spikes above 100% are cliffs: going $1 over a Medicare or ACA limit costs a fixed amount, so it pays to stay just under. Use it to size Roth conversions and extra withdrawals.
Where your income sits in the tax brackets shows the year's income as a bar: the tax-free deduction first, then each federal bracket used, then investment gains (taxed 0/15/20%). Below it: room left in your current bracket and room left for 0%-taxed investment gains. Check it did what you expected: the Bracket column in the Dashboard's year-by-year table should match the bracket shown here.
Will I lose part of my employer match?
Some employers match only what you put in each paycheck. If you save a high % of pay, you can hit the 401(k) limit ($24,500 in 2026, more from age 50) before December and get no match for the rest of the year, unless the plan does a year-end "true-up". The card shows the month you would reach the limit, the match you could lose, and the % of pay that spreads the limit over all 12 months. Ask HR whether your plan has a true-up.
Cost of taking money out early
Before 59½, a 401(k) or IRA withdrawal costs income tax plus a 10% penalty. The federal rate is filled in from your plan's real extra tax this year. Untick the penalty for the common exceptions: leaving your job in or after the year you turn 55 (that employer's plan only; 50 for some public-safety workers), disability, 72(t) payments, and a few others listed by the IRS. Roth contributions (not earnings) can always come out free.
Self-employed: Solo 401(k), SEP-IRA and self-employment tax
Pick the person and enter the business's net profit (filled in from a self-employed person's salary). It shows self-employment tax, the "employee" deferral (up to $24,500 in 2026, plus $8,000 catch-up from 50, or $11,250 at 60–63, less what you already put in another 401(k)), the "employer" profit-sharing part (20% of profit after half the self-employment tax), the total (up to $72,000 plus catch-up) and, for comparison, the SEP-IRA limit (employer part only). Use these amounts in my plan sets that person's 401(k) contribution and match.
Check it: for $150,000 profit at age 45: SE tax = 150,000 × 0.9235 × 15.3% = $21,194; employer part = 20% × (150,000 − 10,597) = $27,881; total = 24,500 + 27,881 = $52,381.
Save the max this year
Pick the account type and person, enter what has gone in so far this year and how often you are paid. It shows this year's legal limit (with catch-up amounts for age 50+, and the higher 60–63 catch-up for 401(k)s) and how much to put in per paycheck to reach it by December 31.
10. Compare scenarios & assumption sets
Scenarios (what-ifs)
- Choose a plan in the top-bar list. Click Duplicate.
- Rename the copy (for example "Retire at 62"). Change one thing.
- Open Compare scenarios. Tick the plans and click Compare selected.
- The table shows chance of success, net worth at retirement, lifetime taxes and more. The chart shows the median net worth of each.
Change one thing at a time, so you know what made the difference.
If one of us dies
For couples. Click Check every year: the app runs your plan with each partner dying in each possible year (one at a time; average returns) and checks that the money still lasts for the one left behind. The verdict is Strong (savings stay at least two years of spending above zero in every case), Thin (always lasts, but gets low) or At risk (runs short in some cases). It names the hardest case and, where the plan would run short, the extra life insurance that would keep it working (found by trying payouts until the plan works). The need is largest if death comes early and shrinks over time, which is why a term policy is usually the cheapest cover. Enter any life insurance you already have to count it.
The survivor's living costs follow Spending after a partner dies under Plan inputs → Household (new plans: 75%; plans made before this version: 100%, so their results don't change). Social Security survivor benefits, single tax brackets and one person's healthcare are already applied.
Assumption sets
On the Dashboard, click Compare assumption sets to see your plan under Pessimistic, Base and Optimistic market views. If the plan still works in the pessimistic set, it is robust. Edit the sets in Plan inputs → Assumption sets.
Run history
On the Compare scenarios tab. Every time your results change, the app notes the time, the plan, what you changed (up to six fields, for example "People row 1 › retireAge: 63 → 60"), the chance of success (with the change from the previous run of that plan), what is left for heirs and lifetime tax. It keeps the last 20, on this device only, in a separate store from your plans. Load brings a past version back as a new plan, so nothing is overwritten; Clear history deletes the list.
11. Holdings & fees tab
Fill in Holdings first. Then you see:
- Total holdings.
- Weighted expense ratio: your average fee. Amber if above 0.4%.
- Annual fees in dollars.
- Fee drag: how much less you would have at the end because of fees. Red if over 10%.
- Allocation chart and per-fund table. Apply allocation, fees and balances to matching accounts copies these into your account rows.
Low-cost index funds often charge under 0.1%.
Where to hold stocks and bonds (asset location)
Keeps the same total in stocks today but moves it between accounts, then runs your whole plan for each choice: your current mix; the same mix everywhere; stocks in Roth and HSA first, then taxable, bonds in pre-tax ("classic"); stocks in taxable first; and bonds in taxable as munis. For each it shows lifetime tax, what heirs get after tax, the chance of success, a bad-luck (10th percentile) ending and the stock share at retirement. Choices that end up identical are shown once. Use this copies the new stock % (and muni setting) into your accounts.
Why it matters: stocks grow faster, so holding them in Roth means more tax-free growth; bonds' interest is taxed every year in a taxable account. But stocks in a Roth also make your total risk change over time, because the Roth grows faster than the rest. That is why the stock share at retirement and the bad-luck ending are shown. The best choice uses average returns, so treat it as a guide.
Bond ladder
A ladder is a set of bonds or CDs that mature one per year, so a known amount arrives every year, often to cover the years from retiring to claiming Social Security. Enter the yearly amount (today's money), when the first one pays, how many years, the kind and its yield. The table shows each rung's cost today, what it pays and the interest in it; the total is what you would spend now. TIPS pay amounts that rise with inflation (enter the real yield); Treasuries, CDs and munis pay fixed dollars. Add this ladder to my plan adds a one-time cost (buying the ladder from your savings) and a yearly income. The interest part is taxed in the year each rung pays (munis: not federally; Treasuries and TIPS: not by the state). In reality interest on many bonds, and TIPS inflation adjustments, are taxed every year as they build up, so this is slightly generous on timing.
Check it: a $10,000 rung paying in 5 years at 4% costs 10,000 ÷ 1.045 = $8,219 today.
Treasuries or munis? (after-tax yield)
Compare a taxable bond, a Treasury and a muni at the yields you enter. The tax rates come from your plan for the year you pick (this year, your first retired year or your first RMD year): the real extra federal tax (including the 3.8% NIIT if it applies) and state tax on $1,000 more interest. It shows what each pays after tax and the taxable-equivalent yield of the muni: muni yield ÷ (1 − federal rate − state rate). A muni can still cost you indirectly: its interest counts toward taxing Social Security, IRMAA and ACA income; that is not in this comparison but is in your plan's projections.
Try this: pick "first retired year". If your tax rate then is low, a taxable bond or Treasury often beats a muni even if a muni wins today.
12. Progress tab
- Every month or quarter, enter the Month, your actual Net worth, optionally Investable assets (accounts only) and a Note.
- Click Add entry. Prefill from plan inputs fills today's numbers for you.
- The table shows actual vs. projected and the difference. The message says "✓ Ahead of plan" or "⚠ Behind plan". The chart puts your entries on the projected line.
Being behind for one entry is normal (markets move). Look at the trend.
Strategy check-in
Takes your latest entry and compares it with what the plan expected for that month (investable assets if you entered them, otherwise net worth). It then re-runs the plan as if all your starting balances had been that much higher or lower, with 200 random futures, and compares the chance of success with the plan's own. Within 3 points: stay the course. Lower: it finds how much to cut all spending (by the same %) to get back to the plan's chance. Higher: how much more you could spend. It is a rule of thumb (it scales balances rather than re-starting the plan from today), not advice; check in once or twice a year, not after every market move.
Freedom days
How many days of a year your savings already pay for: savings × safe withdrawal rate ÷ yearly spending × 365, up to 365. The calendar fills from January 1. "Each extra day costs" = yearly spending ÷ (rate × 365): the savings needed for one more day. It leaves out Social Security and pensions, which would add days. Filled in from your plan; change any number.
13. FIRE tab
"FIRE" means Financial Independence, Retire Early. This tab uses a simple rule of thumb, separate from the main plan.
- Safe withdrawal rate (%): the share of savings you would spend yearly (4 is common).
- Real return (%): growth after inflation. 4 to 5 is a common, cautious choice.
- Return preset: the same presets as in Market assumptions, turned into real returns by subtracting your inflation (Moderate 6% − 2.5% = 3.5%). Bank (0%) gives a negative real return: cash loses buying power.
- FIRE number: spending ÷ withdrawal rate. At 4%, that is 25 times your yearly spending.
- Progress, Years to FI, Coast FIRE number (savings needed today to stop saving and still reach the goal by retirement) and Coast FIRE reached?
It ignores Social Security and pensions. The main plan includes them.
Years to FI: how much it varies
The years-to-FI figure above assumes the same return every year. Click Show the spread to see how long it took in real history (each start year from 1928) or in random futures. It uses your plan's accounts, salaries and savings, keeps everyone working, and counts the years until savings reach the FIRE number above (in today's money). The bars show how many histories took each number of years; the text gives the typical figure, the fast (1 in 10) and slow (9 in 10) figures, and the share that never got there within the plan.
Try this: raise the yearly savings by $5,000 and run it again: the slow case usually improves more than the typical one.
13a. Flexible spending tab (TPAW)
The rest of the app asks "will my planned spending last?". This tab asks a different question: "how much can I safely spend each year, and how should I invest?" It uses the TPAW method ("total portfolio allocation and withdrawal") from economist Ben Mathew's free TPAW Planner. This app works out the method from the published math; it is not affiliated with TPAW Planner.
The idea in plain words
- Count everything you have. Your savings are only part of your wealth. Future pay you will save, Social Security and pensions are worth money today too. Together they make your total portfolio.
- Future income is like a bond. Steady income such as Social Security behaves like a safe bond. So when you have lots of it, your savings can hold more stocks. That is why the stock share is high early in a career and can jump when a pension or Social Security starts.
- Spending follows the markets, gently. Each year spending is reset to what your total wealth can support for the rest of your life. A market drop lowers spending somewhat; good years raise it. You never plan to run out. Instead, spending moves.
- Must-pay costs are kept safe. Essential expenses, health, housing, debts and events marked "Must pay" are set aside first and do not change with markets.
Spending methods
- Total portfolio (TPAW): recommended. Spending and the stock share both come from your whole picture and your risk tolerance.
- Savings portfolio (SPAW): spending adjusts to your savings only, and you set the stock mix (now and at the end, in a straight line between). Leave both blank to follow the plan's glide path from the Allocation section.
- Fixed withdrawal (SWR): a fixed yearly amount, set when withdrawals start, like the "4% rule". The "suggested rate" depends on how long retirement lasts (about 3.8% for 30 years, 3.0% for 40). Only this method shows a chance that money lasts, because the others change spending instead of running out.
Settings
- Show amounts
- Per month or per year. Amounts you type on this tab (extras, floor, ceiling, fixed amount) use the same unit.
- Plan to age
- The age to plan spending to. Blank uses 100 (or your life expectancy if higher), because running out of money at 95 is worse than leaving some behind. Social Security and pensions continue to these ages here.
- Start withdrawals when this person retires
- For couples: everyday spending from savings starts when this person retires. Before that, pay covers the costs.
- Keep "essential" expenses safe
- Expenses ticked Essential in Plan inputs are paid first and never cut. Your other living expenses are not used here: this tab works out everyday spending itself.
- Count 401(k)/IRA and HSA after an estimated tax
- Reduces those balances by the % you choose, as a rough allowance for the tax you will pay on them.
- Rough tax on Social Security, pensions and other income
- Takes this % off that income. 0 = everything before tax.
- Extra spending and income
- Add items not in your plan. Nice to have items (travel) rise and fall with markets. Must pay items are kept safe. Extra income adds money in. Ages are the person's ages, start to end inclusive. Events from your plan are included automatically.
- Amount to leave
- Money you want left at the end, in today's money. Part can come from outside your savings (life insurance) or from home equity; only the rest is kept from savings. With 0, the plan aims to use your savings over your lifetime.
- Spending ceiling / floor
- A ceiling caps everyday spending. A floor keeps it from falling below an amount, but in bad markets that can empty your savings early, so it is not recommended.
- Risk tolerance (0–24)
- How much ups and downs you accept. Higher means more in stocks and more variable spending, with higher spending on average. 0–4 very conservative, 5–9 conservative, 10–14 moderate, 15–19 aggressive, 20–24 very aggressive. By default it drops by 2 points by the last age, and money to leave behind gets 2 points more.
- Prefer spending now / extra yearly growth of spending
- Positive "prefer now" moves spending earlier. Positive "extra growth" spends less now and more later. Both default to 0.
- Expected returns (after inflation)
- Stocks 5.2% and bonds 3.0% a year after inflation by default (values as of 16 October 2026: the bond figure is the 20-year inflation-protected Treasury yield). Unlike Plan inputs, these are real returns.
- Ups and downs (volatility)
- 17.9% for stocks and 8.33% for bonds, as in TPAW Planner. Larger values widen the range of outcomes.
- Market history
- Random 5-year blocks (default): 1,000 futures stitched from 5-year stretches of real history 1928–2025, so booms and busts keep their real shape. Every real starting year: each full stretch of history once. One historical starting year: replays a single history, for example retiring into 1966. Steady returns: the expected returns every year. "Use history from … to" limits the years used. "Adjust history" shifts history so its average matches your expected returns (on by default).
Results
- Spending when withdrawals start and at the last age: the middle result and the likely range (5th to 95th percentile: only 5 in 100 futures are worse or better).
- What to do this year: how much to add to or take from savings, and the stock/bond split.
- Left at the end: savings left at the last age in bad, middle and good futures.
- Year by year chart: total spending, everyday spending, savings balance, stock share (of savings, and of everything you have), and withdrawal rate.
- Compare the three methods: the same plan and futures under TPAW, SPAW and SWR.
- Warnings appear if you set a floor, if the stock share would need to exceed 100% (no borrowing), or if must-pay costs could not be paid in more than 5% of futures.
Differences from TPAW Planner: this tab works in yearly (not monthly) steps, uses 1928–2025 annual history (not monthly data from 1871), and uses your plan's life expectancies for Social Security survivor rules. Results are usually within about 10% of TPAW Planner's.
14. Budget (CSV) tab
Learn what you really spend, using files from your bank. Nothing is sent anywhere.
- In your bank's website, download transactions as a CSV file. It needs Date, Description and Amount (or Debit/Credit) columns.
- Click Choose CSV file(s), or paste the text and click Import pasted CSV. Load sample data shows an example. Importing the same file twice skips duplicates.
- Transactions are sorted into categories automatically. Add Categorization rules: a Category and a Pattern of words separated by
|, for examplegym|fitness. You can also change a category in the Transactions table. - Recurring charges lists subscriptions and bills that repeat.
- Set monthly budgets per category, or click Set budgets to 6-month averages. The summary shows spending, income, savings rate (green above 15%) and whether last month was under or over budget.
- Use averages as plan expenses replaces your plan's expense list with these averages. Remove housing and healthcare rows afterwards if they are already entered elsewhere.
- Export transactions CSV saves them; Clear all transactions deletes them.
15. Report & printing
Lifetime balance sheet (on the Report): your whole plan as two columns, in today's money. What you have: savings, home equity, and the present value of all future salaries, Social Security, pensions and other money coming in, minus debts. What the plan uses: all spending, healthcare, housing, taxes, gifts and one-off costs, plus what is left at the end. "Present value" means what that future money is worth today if it earned a safe 1% a year above inflation. The gap, needed from investment returns, is how much the plan relies on investments doing better than that safe rate. A small or negative gap is a sturdy plan; a large one depends on markets. Planned money left at the end often makes up most of the gap. Taxes are your plan's projected taxes with average returns.
The Report tab is a one-page summary with key numbers and charts. Click Print / save as PDF (or Print report in the top bar). In the print window, choose "Save as PDF" as the printer to keep a file. This manual can be printed too.
Copy plan summary for AI / advisor
On the Report tab. Makes a short plain-text (Markdown) summary of your plan and results for pasting into an AI chat or emailing an adviser: household, ages, accounts by type, spending, other income, assumptions, key results and a few starter questions. It leaves out names, notes, account names and exact birth dates, and rounds amounts to the nearest $1,000. It is made on your device; nothing is sent. Read it before sharing: it still describes your finances. Copy to clipboard or Download .md.
16. Every warning and what to do
Warnings appear as ⚠ lines on the Dashboard or as coloured results. This is the full list.
Warnings about your inputs (Dashboard)
Yellow ⚠ warnings point to something that probably needs fixing. Blue ℹ notes just confirm how the plan reads your inputs. Survivor pensions no longer produce a warning: with a survivor % the pension always pays for life and then continues to the spouse.
| Message | What it means | How to fix |
|---|---|---|
| "…: the Social Security claiming age is N, but retirement benefits can't start before 62, so the plan uses 62. If … gets disability benefits (SSDI), tick "Receiving SSDI"…" | Retirement benefits can't start before 62. Your plan keeps the number you typed; 62 is used. | If the person gets disability benefits, tick Receiving SSDI and enter when SSDI started. Otherwise enter 62 to 70. |
| "…: the Social Security claiming age is N, but benefits stop growing at 70, so the plan uses 70." | Waiting past 70 adds nothing. | Enter 70 or less. |
| "…: SSDI is set to start at N, which is at or after full retirement age…" | SSDI is only paid before full retirement age. | Untick Receiving SSDI and enter a normal claiming age (waiting past FRA adds delayed credits). |
| "…: earns X a year (today's money) while on SSDI. That's above the 2026 work limit for disability benefits (SGA…)" | Earning over $1,690 a month in 2026 ($2,830 if blind) usually stops SSDI after a trial period. | Set the retirement age to when this work stops, lower the salary, or untick SSDI if the person will go back to work. |
| "…: the life expectancy (N) is lower than …'s age today (M)…" | The person would already have died in the plan. | Enter the age to plan to, for example 95. |
| "…: the retirement age (N) is after the life expectancy (M), so the plan has … working every year." | They never retire in the plan. | If that's not what you mean, lower the retirement age. |
| "…: the retirement age (N) is not after today's age (M), so the salary of X isn't counted…" | This person is treated as already retired. | If they still work, raise the retirement age. If not, set the salary to 0. |
| "…: the sell age (N) isn't after the buy age (M), so the sale is skipped…" | The home would be sold before it is bought. | Enter a sell age later than the buy age, or leave it blank to keep the property. |
| "…: the sell age (N) has already passed, so the plan sells it in the first year…" | The sell age is younger than you are now. | If you already sold it, delete the row. Otherwise enter a future age. |
| "…: a N-year loan taken at age M would already be paid off, but a mortgage balance is entered…" | The loan term, counted from the buy age, has ended, yet there is still a balance. | Enter the monthly Payment, or the loan's real term (after a refinance, enter the new term and the refinance age as Buy age). |
| "…: the monthly payment doesn't cover the interest, so the loan balance grows every year…" | The payment is too small for the rate. | Check Payment/mo and Rate %, or leave Payment blank to have it worked out. |
| "…: the … you entered (N) is out of range, so M is used for now. Please check it." | A birth year, life expectancy or retirement age is impossible (for example a typo). | Fix the number; the plan keeps what you typed until you do. |
| "…: the SSDI start age (N) is out of range (it must be 18 or older)…" | SSDI starts at 18 at the earliest. | Enter 18 or older, or leave it blank if SSDI is already being paid. |
| "…: the public pension start age (N) is outside the 55–75 range this app supports…" | Non-US regimes only: the start age is unusual. | Enter an age between 55 and 75. |
| "The plan start year N doesn't look right…" | The start year is not between 1900 and 2200. | Enter the year the plan should start, such as 2026. |
| "One number you entered is far too large (over 1 trillion), so 1 trillion is used…" | Usually a typo, such as extra zeros. | Find and fix the very large number. |
| Message | What it means | What to do |
|---|---|---|
| ℹ "…: bought at age N (year), so it's already yours. Enter today's value and your current mortgage balance; no down payment is charged." | Information, not a problem: the buy age is in the past, so the home is already owned. If Payment is blank, it also says how many loan years are left. | Nothing needed. Check that Value and Mortgage are today's figures. Enter what you paid in Cost basis. |
| ℹ "…: the sell age (N) comes after the plan ends, so it is never sold and is left to your heirs." | You would not reach that age in the plan. | Fine if you mean to keep it. Otherwise enter an earlier age. |
| ℹ "…: X is taken out N times (…), Y in total… If it only happens once, set "How often" to One time." | A large cost repeats, which is easy to set by mistake. | If it really repeats (for example a car every 10 years), nothing to do. If not, set How often to One time. |
| ℹ "Contributions: with the automatic increases, contributions reach the IRS yearly limit in YEAR (age N)…" | An account's automatic increase pushes contributions above the legal maximum for that year. | Nothing to fix: the app holds them at the limit. If you want to save more, add a taxable account for the extra. |
Coloured results
| Where | Meaning | What to do |
|---|---|---|
| Status "✗ At risk" (red) / "⚠ Borderline" (amber) | Success below 70% / between 70% and 85%. | See How to improve it. |
| "With average returns, money runs short at age N (year)." | Even with steady average returns, savings run out. | Spend less, work longer, save more, delay Social Security. |
| Red numbers / Shortfall column in the year table | A negative value, or money the plan could not cover. | Find the first shortfall year and adjust. |
| "Years with IRMAA" (amber) | Your income two years earlier triggers Medicare surcharges. | Use smaller Roth conversions or "Stay under IRMAA tier"; spread out big gains. |
| "Contributions over IRS limits" (amber) | You planned to save more than the law allows; the excess is not invested. | Lower Contrib/yr, or move the extra to a taxable account. |
| Federal / State estate tax (red) | The estate exceeds the exemption. | Talk to an estate professional. Consider giving or trusts. |
| Weighted expense ratio (amber) / Fee drag (red) | Fees above 0.4% / fees eat more than 10% of the ending value. | Look for lower-cost funds. |
| "Coast FIRE reached? Not yet" (amber) | Savings are below the coast number. | Keep saving; it shows how far you are. |
| Savings rate (amber) / Budget "over by" (red) | Saving 15% or less / overspent last month. | Review the categories on the Budget tab. |
| "⚠ Behind plan" | Your latest recorded net worth is below the projection. | Watch the trend; update the plan if it persists. |
| Scenario / historical table "No" or red success | That scenario or start year ran out of money. | Compare what differs and adjust. |
Pop-up and status messages
| Message | Meaning and fix |
|---|---|
| "Could not import: …" / "No plans in file" | The file is not a plan export from this app. Use a file made with Export JSON. |
| "Imported N plan(s)." | Success. Imported plans are added to your list. |
| "Could not save (storage full or blocked)" | Your browser blocks storage (private mode, or settings). Allow site data or use a normal window. Export JSON to keep your work. |
| "Keep at least one plan." | You tried to delete your only plan. Create another first. |
| "Delete …?" / "Delete all imported transactions?" / "Replace this plan's expense list …?" | Confirmation before a change that cannot be undone. Click Cancel to keep things as they are. |
| "No transactions found. Need Date, Description and Amount (or Debit/Credit) columns." | The CSV columns were not recognised. Rename the header row to these names. |
| "Plan expenses updated from your transactions." / "Accounts updated from holdings." | Success messages. |
17. Saving, exporting, importing
- Automatic saving: every change is stored in this browser on this device.
- Several plans: use the plan list and New, Duplicate, Rename and Delete in the top bar.
- Export JSON: downloads one file with all your plans and budget data. Do this regularly as a backup.
- Import JSON: loads such a file, for example on another computer. Imported plans are added to your list and nothing is deleted. A plan that is already in your list (same plan ID) is skipped, not replaced. To load a changed copy, first delete the old plan.
- Print report: see Report & printing.
- Export with password: the same backup, but locked with a password you choose (at least 8 characters, typed twice). It uses strong standard encryption built into your browser (AES-256 with a key made from your password with PBKDF2, 310,000 rounds). Use it before you email the file or keep it in the cloud. Import JSON notices a locked file and asks for the password. There is no way to recover a forgotten password: no one, including us, can open the file without it. Keep the password somewhere safe, such as a password manager.
18. Privacy
- Everything runs inside your browser. Your numbers are never sent to a server.
- There is no account, no login, no tracking and no advertising.
- Two buttons can carry your data out, only when you click them: Share link (the plan is inside the link you share) and Open Social Security (birth dates, benefits and salary go to that site in its web address).
- Bank CSV files are read on your device only.
- Your data is visible to anyone who uses this browser profile. On a shared computer, export your plan and then clear the site data.
19. Limitations & not financial advice
This is an educational estimate, not financial, tax or legal advice. Check important decisions with official sources (IRS, SSA, Medicare) and a qualified professional.
- Tax rules are simplified and based on 2026 law. Laws change.
- State tax is simplified. Local and city taxes are not included. Some retirement-income exclusions are approximate. State estate tax is an upper-bound estimate.
- New Jersey: pensions, IRA/401(k) withdrawals and RMDs are partly tax-free (the "pension exclusion"), but only the income of a spouse who is 62 or older, or who gets Social Security disability. If your total NJ income is up to $100,000, up to $100,000 of it is tax-free ($75,000 if single). From $100,001 to $125,000, half of it is tax-free (37.5% if single). From $125,001 to $150,000, a quarter is tax-free (18.75% if single). Above $150,000 none of it is. Each person who is 65 or older or disabled gets an extra $1,000 exemption. Property tax on your main home (not a rental) is deducted, up to $15,000, or you get the $50 credit if that saves more. Simplifications: NJ brackets and amounts rise with your inflation assumption (NJ doesn't actually raise them), Roth conversions don't count for the exclusion, the extra "other retirement income" exclusion isn't modelled, and the $50 credit can't take your tax below $0.
- Outside the US, only national rules are modelled. Provinces and regions use one flat rate. You must enter your state pension yourself as an income.
- The plan works year by year, not month by month. Mortgages use yearly payments.
- Returns and inflation are assumptions. The future can be worse than any test.
- Social Security: spousal benefits are not reduced by the earnings test.
- The ACA subsidy is estimated from the previous year's income.
- 72(t) plans do not model penalties for breaking the schedule.
- Reverse-mortgage limits and life-expectancy factors are approximate.
- Home sales do not check the "lived there 2 of 5 years" rule or depreciation on rentals.
- There is no live bank connection. Use CSV import.
- Annuity payouts are estimates from US population life tables and a fixed insurer yield. Insurers use their own tables and rates.
- Stress tests replace returns for the years you choose without changing the years around them.
- The back-to-work rule pays person 1 only and happens at most once per future.
- Tax-loss harvesting is a yearly rule of thumb. It does not track individual lots or the "wash-sale" rule: if you (or your IRA, or your spouse) buy the same or a "substantially identical" fund within 30 days before or after the sale, the loss is not allowed. Swap to a similar, not identical, fund.
- The Roth 5-year clock treats Roth money you already have as contributions, and does not track the separate 5-year rule for tax-free earnings.
- Divorced-spouse benefits are simplified: no remarriage, no earnings test on them, and your ex is assumed to claim at full retirement age.
- The inherited-IRA rules follow the 2024 IRS final rules in simplified form. They ignore the year-of-death RMD, successor beneficiaries, and the switch to the 10-year rule when a minor child turns 21 (choose the 10-year rule instead for a child near 21).
- Dividends and interest are paid on balances at the start of each year and reinvested. Capital-gains distributions from funds are not modelled. Outside the US, all of this income is taxed like wages. Muni interest is assumed to come from your own state (free of state tax).
- Bond-ladder interest is taxed in the year each bond pays, not as it builds up each year (which is how zero-coupon bonds and TIPS adjustments are really taxed).
- Self-employment: the QBI deduction assumes no employees and no business property. Social Security and Medicare tax on wages (FICA) is not modelled for employees, only self-employment tax.
- The strategy check-in, freedom days, required return and the calculators are rules of thumb on simplified inputs.
- The safe-withdrawal-rate-by-year, safe floor and upside figures each assume you know the future of that one path. They describe the past or one simulated future, not what is safe for you.
19a. How the numbers are worked out
A short guide to the method, so you can judge the results.
How the math is checked: the validation page lists every automatic test, the independent math check (seven very different households, one of them a real saved plan, re-worked by hand from the published 2026 rules) and the official sources used, with the latest results.
Tax on dividends and interest (added October 2026): earlier versions did not tax the yearly income of brokerage and savings accounts. Now they do, so lifetime taxes rose and what is left at the end fell. On the sample plan: lifetime tax $1.14M → $1.39M, ending net worth $10.78M → $10.39M (today's money), chance of success unchanged at 99.2%. Untick Tax dividends and interest every year to see the old figures.
- One year at a time. For each year from now to the last life expectancy, the app adds income (pay, Social Security, pensions, rents, annuities), takes away spending, healthcare and taxes, and draws any gap from your accounts in your withdrawal order. Growth is applied to what is left.
- Taxes follow 2026 federal rules (brackets, standard deduction, capital gains rates, the taxable part of Social Security, Medicare IRMAA, ACA credits, RMDs), with limits indexed to your inflation assumption. State taxes are simplified.
- Markets. The Dashboard uses your average returns every year. Monte Carlo draws random yearly returns with the averages and volatilities you set. History replays real US returns and inflation since 1928.
- Success means your planned spending was paid in full every year. The severity, ending and "rich, broke or no longer alive" cards show how close the failures were.
- Life tables. Survival chances come from the Social Security Administration's 2023 period life table (used in the 2026 Trustees Report). They are population averages; your health, income and family history matter.
- Today's money. Most figures are divided by cumulative inflation so they can be compared with prices now.
What the colours mean
Green: chance of success 85% or more. Amber: 70% to 85%. Red: below 70%. These are rules of thumb used by many planners, not official standards. A flexible spending plan can run safely at a lower number, and a plan with no room to cut spending may want a higher one.
Why other calculators give different answers
- Different market assumptions. A 1-point change in returns can move success by 10–20 points. Look up what return and inflation each tool uses.
- Taxes. Many tools ignore taxes or use one flat rate. This app works out taxes year by year, which usually makes results a little worse but more realistic.
- What "success" means. Some tools count any money left as success, others require a minimum. Some let spending fall automatically.
- Length of the plan. The famous "4% rule" was tested over 30 years. A 40-year retirement needs a lower rate.
- Random draws. Each Monte Carlo run differs a little; a change of a point or two means nothing.
Re-run it every year
Plans go stale. Update your balances, spending and ages at least once a year, and after any big change (a job, a move, a market fall, a health diagnosis). A projection is a starting point for decisions, not a promise; small adjustments made early are much easier than big ones made late.
Further reading (free)
- Social Security Administration, Trustees Reports: where the projected 2034 benefit cut and the life tables come from.
- IRS, Required minimum distributions: the official RMD rules, including QLACs.
- Vanguard research, "Break-even tax rate" paper on Roth conversions: the idea behind the conversion calculator on the Taxes tab (the app uses its formulas, not its text).
- Cooley, Hubbard and Walz (1998), "Retirement Savings: Choosing a Withdrawal Rate That Is Sustainable", the "Trinity study": the original withdrawal-rate × stock-share table.
- Ty Bernicke (2005), "Reality Retirement Planning": why real spending tends to fall with age.
- Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, pbgc.gov: what happens to US private pensions if an employer fails.
20. FAQ
My lifetime taxes went up after an update. Why?
The app now taxes dividends and interest from brokerage and savings accounts every year, as the IRS does. That is more accurate. See how much it changes.
Should I hold munis?
Usually only in a taxable account and in a high tax bracket. Use Treasuries or munis? with your own yields, and look at your first retired year too.
Can I share my plan with an AI or an adviser without giving my name?
Yes: Copy plan summary on the Report tab. Read it first.
Do I enter amounts before or after tax?
Before tax. Salary and pensions are gross amounts. The app works out taxes.
Should I include my mortgage in expenses?
No. Put it under Real estate. Otherwise it is counted twice.
My success rate is 100% but I am not rich. Is something wrong?
Perhaps not. Check spending, events (How often and How many times), and the "Real salary growth" field. A high real growth makes future pay grow very fast.
Why does the success rate change a little when nothing changed?
On the Monte Carlo tab, a different Seed or number of Runs gives slightly different random futures. Keep the seed the same when comparing.
Why does the average-returns line say "funded" but success is low?
Average returns hide bad years. A crash early in retirement can do lasting damage. The success % includes those cases.
When should I claim Social Security?
Use the claiming-age optimizer on the Social Security tab. Waiting usually helps if you expect a long life. A spouse with the bigger benefit waiting also protects the survivor.
I get SSDI (disability). How do I enter it?
Under Plan inputs → People, tick Receiving SSDI, type the monthly amount from your award letter, and leave SSDI start age blank if you already receive it. The claiming age is then ignored. SSDI is paid in full, becomes your retirement benefit at full retirement age, and Medicare starts after 24 months. See SSDI and SSI.
I get SSI. Is that Social Security?
No. SSI is a needs-based payment, not Social Security. Add it under Other income (not taxable), with an end age if you might lose eligibility.
How do I enter a car every 10 years?
Add one event: At age 60, Amount −40000, How often Repeats, Every 10 years, 3 times. The line under it reads "at ages 60, 70, 80". For something every year (college), use Every 1 year.
Does my spouse keep my pension after I die?
Enter the Survivor % from your pension paperwork (for example 50 or 100). The plan then pays the pension for your life and that share to your spouse for the rest of theirs; End age is not used. With 0% it stops when you die.
I inherited an IRA. How do I enter it?
Add it under Accounts as a traditional account and choose a rule in Inherited IRA?. Most people who inherit from a parent use the 10-year rule. Compare "take evenly over 10 years" and "10-year rule (least each year)" in the Compare tab: spreading it out usually means less lifetime tax.
Can I protect my backup with a password?
Yes: Export with password. Do not lose the password; a locked file cannot be opened without it.
I am divorced. Can I get Social Security on my ex's record?
If the marriage lasted 10 years or more and you are not remarried, yes. See divorced-spouse benefits. Your ex is not told and loses nothing.
Should I buy an annuity?
An income annuity is insurance against living a long time. It suits people whose guaranteed income (Social Security, pensions) does not cover essential costs, who are healthy and who worry about markets. Try it under Income annuities and compare the "Rich, broke or no longer alive" chart. Get several quotes; this app's payout is an estimate.
My employer offers a lump sum instead of my pension. Which should I take?
Use the pension card on the Social Security tab. If an insurer would pay you less per month for the lump sum than the pension does, the pension is usually the better value, especially if you are healthy and married.
Why does another calculator say something different?
See Why other calculators give different answers. The biggest causes are return assumptions, taxes and what counts as success.
What life expectancy should I use?
Plan long, such as 92 to 95. Running out of money late in life is the bigger risk.
Can I use the app on my phone?
Yes. Your plans on the phone are separate from your computer. Use Export and Import to move them.
Where is my data stored? Can you see it?
Only in your browser. Nobody else can see it.
I live outside the US. Can I use it?
Yes, choose UK, Canada, Australia or Custom under Tax regime. Enter your state pension as an income. US-only features (Medicare, Social Security, US states) are then not used.
How do I start over?
Click New for a fresh sample plan, then delete old plans.
Quick Check says ON TRACK but my chance of success is low (or the other way round). Which is right?
Both, they measure different things. Quick Check compares income with your salary using a simple 4% rule. The chance of success compares money with your actual spending, taxes and market swings. Trust the chance of success for decisions. If you spend much less than 80% of your pay, lower the Quick Check target.
Which return preset should I choose?
If unsure, Moderate (6%). Conservative suits mostly bonds and cash, Aggressive mostly stocks held for a long time. Bank (0%) shows what happens if money is not invested at all. These are nominal (before inflation) returns. See Nominal or real?
Is the Share link safe to post?
Only if you are happy for anyone to see your plan. The link holds all the plan's numbers in readable form after unpacking. It is not encrypted. See Share link.
Open Social Security says something different from this app. Why?
It uses its own mortality tables (by gender) rather than your life expectancy, and covers some cases in more detail. Treat it as a second opinion. Check that the gender and birth date fields are filled in.
Learn: key ideas, with your own numbers
Each idea below has a short explanation, the figure the app uses (2026 law), how it shows up in your own plan (read from this browser, nothing is sent anywhere), where to find it in the app, and an official source. Click an idea to open it.
Loading…
Guidance level and tours
In the top bar, Guidance sets how much help the app shows: Light (the normal short notes), Guided (adds a "Start here" box with the first steps at the top of every tab) or Off (hides the grey help notes, for experienced users; the ? links stay). Take a tour walks you through an example household (an early retiree, a couple near retirement, or a single renter), one step at a time, highlighting each part of the screen. The example is added as a new plan; at the end you can keep it or remove it, and your own plans are never changed.
Check yourself (optional quiz)
1. You convert $20,000 to a Roth at age 57. When can you take it out without the 10% penalty?
At 59½ (2½ years later), because 59½ comes before the 5-year clock ends. See Roth 5-year clock.
2. Which is taxed at the lower rate: $1,000 of bank interest or $1,000 of qualified dividends?
Qualified dividends (0%, 15% or 20%). Interest is taxed like wages. See qualified dividends.
3. In a 32% federal bracket and a 6% state, what must a taxable bond pay to match a 4% muni?
4% ÷ (1 − 0.32 − 0.06) = about 6.45%. Use the Treasuries or munis card for your own rate.
4. Your income two years ago decides which Medicare cost?
The IRMAA surcharge on Parts B and D. See IRMAA.
5. Why can a 95% chance of success still be uncomfortable?
The 5% of futures that fail may fail badly and early. Look at how bad and at the worst historical start years.
6. You inherit your parent's IRA in 2026. By when must it be empty?
By the end of 2036 (the 10th year after the death), with yearly minimums if your parent had started RMDs. See Inherited IRA.
21. Glossary
- 401(k) / 403(b)
- A workplace retirement account. Money goes in before tax; withdrawals are taxed.
- 72(t) SEPP
- A rule that allows penalty-free early withdrawals if you take fixed yearly amounts.
- ACA
- The Affordable Care Act: health insurance you buy yourself, with subsidies based on income.
- AFR
- An interest rate set monthly by the IRS. Used for 72(t).
- Annuity
- A contract that pays you a set income, often for life.
- Asset location
- Which accounts hold which investments, for example stocks in a Roth and bonds in a 401(k). Same total mix, different taxes. See asset location.
- Assumption set
- A group of market guesses (returns, inflation): pessimistic, base or optimistic.
- Auto-escalation
- Raising your savings rate automatically each year, up to a cap. See Accounts.
- Basis (cost basis)
- What you paid for an investment or home. Only gains above it are taxed.
- Block bootstrap
- Building random futures from multi-year stretches of real market history.
- Bond
- A loan to a government or company that pays interest. Steadier than stocks.
- Bond ladder
- Bonds or CDs bought to mature one per year, so a known amount arrives each year. See bond ladder.
- Bracket (tax bracket)
- A band of income taxed at one rate. The "marginal" rate is the rate on your next dollar.
- Capital gain
- Profit from selling something for more than you paid.
- COLA
- Cost-of-living adjustment: a raise that keeps up with prices. See Cost-of-living types.
- Donor-advised fund
- An account you give to in one year (getting the tax deduction then) that pays charities later, as you choose.
- Essential expense
- A need you cannot cut, such as food or utilities.
- Estate
- Everything you own when you die.
- Exclusion ratio
- The tax-free share of each annuity payment bought with already-taxed money: the part that is your own premium coming back.
- Expense ratio
- A fund's yearly fee as a percent of your money.
- Fan chart
- A chart showing a range of possible outcomes over time.
- FIRE
- Financial Independence, Retire Early.
- FPL
- Federal poverty level. Used for ACA subsidies.
- FRA
- Full retirement age for Social Security (67 for people born 1960 or later).
- Freedom days
- How many days a year your savings could pay for at a safe withdrawal rate. See freedom days.
- Glide path
- A plan for how your stock share changes as you age. Usually it goes down toward retirement. A rising glide path goes the other way after retirement, adding stocks year by year. See Allocation.
- Guardrails
- A spending rule that cuts or raises spending when your portfolio moves a lot.
- HECM (reverse mortgage)
- A loan for people 62+ against their home. Repaid when the home is sold.
- HELOC
- Home equity line of credit: borrow against your home's value.
- Home equity
- Home value minus the mortgage.
- HSA
- Health savings account. Tax-free for medical costs.
- Income replacement ratio
- Retirement income as a % of the pay you earn now. Often 70–80% is suggested. See Quick Check.
- Inflation
- The rise in prices over time.
- Inherited IRA
- A retirement account left to you by someone other than your spouse. Most must be emptied within 10 years.
- IRA
- Individual retirement account. Traditional (taxed on withdrawal) or Roth (tax-free on withdrawal).
- IRMAA
- Extra Medicare premiums for higher-income people, based on income from two years earlier.
- Joint and survivor
- A pension or annuity that keeps paying (all or part) to your spouse after you die, in exchange for a lower payment now.
- Liquid / investable assets
- Money in accounts you can spend, not counting your home.
- Median
- The middle result: half are better, half worse.
- Medicare (Part B, Part D, Medigap)
- US health insurance from age 65. Part B covers doctors; Part D covers drugs; Medigap fills gaps.
- Monte Carlo
- Testing a plan against many random futures to see how often it works.
- Municipal bond (muni)
- A bond from a state or city. Its interest is free of federal tax (and usually of your own state's tax), but still counts for Social Security taxation, IRMAA and the ACA.
- Net worth
- Everything you own minus everything you owe.
- NIIT
- Net investment income tax: an extra 3.8% on investment income (interest, dividends, gains) above $200,000 of income (single) or $250,000 (married).
- Nominal
- Actual future dollars, before adjusting for inflation. All returns you enter are nominal (see Nominal or real?).
- OOP
- Out-of-pocket costs: what you pay yourself beyond premiums.
- Percentile
- Where a result ranks among all the simulated futures. The 10th percentile is the result that only 10 in 100 futures do worse than (the app's "bad luck" figure); the 5th, only 5 in 100.
- PIA
- Primary insurance amount: your Social Security benefit at full retirement age, from your earnings record. SSDI pays the full PIA, and spousal (up to 50%) and survivor benefits are based on it.
- Portfolio (vs net worth)
- All your savings and investment accounts together: cash, brokerage, pre-tax (401(k)/IRA), Roth and HSA. It is the money you can draw from to live on. Net worth is wider: it adds your home, other property and belongings, then takes off what you owe, such as the mortgage. Example: $800,000 in accounts plus a $500,000 home with a $200,000 mortgage gives a portfolio of $800,000 and a net worth of $1,100,000.
- Present value
- What a future amount is worth today, if today's money earned a set rate until then.
- QBI deduction
- A deduction of up to 20% of a small business's profit for owners, with limits at higher incomes.
- QCD
- Qualified charitable distribution: giving straight from an IRA after 70½, tax-free (up to $111,000 in 2026).
- QLAC
- Qualified longevity annuity contract: a deferred annuity bought with IRA money (up to $210,000 in 2026) that starts by 85 and is left out of RMDs until then.
- Qualified dividends
- Dividends taxed at the lower long-term capital-gains rates (0%, 15%, 20%). Most dividends from stock funds held long enough are qualified.
- Real (return, growth)
- After subtracting inflation.
- Rebalancing
- Putting your mix back to its target, for example back to 60% stocks after a stock rally pushed it to 70%. Between rebalances the mix drifts with returns. See Rebalance the mix.
- Risk tolerance
- How much ups and downs you accept, 0–24, on the Flexible spending tab.
- RMD
- Required minimum distribution: the yearly amount you must take from traditional accounts starting at 73 or 75.
- Roth
- An account funded with taxed money. Growth and withdrawals are tax-free.
- Roth 5-year clock
- Each Roth conversion must wait 5 years (or until 59½) before it can be taken out without the 10% penalty.
- Roth conversion
- Moving money from traditional to Roth and paying tax now.
- Rule of 55
- Leaving your job at 55+ lets you take from that job's 401(k) without penalty.
- Safe withdrawal rate
- The highest share of savings you could have spent in the first year of retirement (then raised with inflation) without running out, in a given history.
- Seed
- A number that makes random results repeatable.
- Self-employment tax
- Social Security and Medicare tax for people who work for themselves: 15.3% on 92.35% of profit (2.9% above the wage base).
- Sensitivity map
- A grid that shows how results change when two inputs change together.
- Sequence risk
- The danger of bad markets right when you start withdrawing.
- SGA
- Substantial gainful activity: the monthly earnings level above which SSA usually considers you able to work. $1,690/month in 2026 ($2,830 if blind).
- Social Security
- US government retirement income based on your work history.
- Solo 401(k)
- A 401(k) for a business owner with no employees. You contribute as both employee and employer.
- Spending tilt
- Planned yearly growth of spending: positive = less now, more later.
- SSDI
- Social Security Disability Insurance: monthly benefits for workers who cannot work because of a disability. Paid at the full PIA, taxed like Social Security, and converted to a retirement benefit at full retirement age.
- SSI
- Supplemental Security Income: a needs-based payment for people with low income and few assets who are 65+, blind or disabled. It is not Social Security and is not taxed.
- Standard deduction
- Income that is not taxed for everyone ($32,200 for couples in 2026).
- Stock
- A share of a company. Grows more over time but swings more.
- Stress test
- Forcing a specific bad event (a crash, high inflation) into the plan to see if it survives.
- Success rate
- The share of tested futures in which money lasted.
- Tax-loss harvesting
- Selling an investment that has fallen to use the loss against tax, then buying a similar one.
- Taxable account
- A normal brokerage account. You pay tax on dividends and gains.
- Taxable-equivalent yield
- What a fully taxed bond would have to pay to match a tax-free muni (or a state-tax-free Treasury) after tax.
- TIPS
- Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities: US government bonds whose value rises with inflation.
- Today's money (today's dollars)
- Amounts shown in what money buys now, removing inflation.
- Total portfolio
- Savings plus today's value of future savings, Social Security and pensions. See Flexible spending.
- Traditional account
- Pre-tax retirement account (401(k), IRA). Taxed when you withdraw.
- Treasury
- A bond from the US government. Interest is taxed federally but not by states.
- Volatility (SD)
- How much returns swing from year to year.
- VPW
- Variable percentage withdrawal: spend a share based on years left.
- Wash sale
- Buying back the same or a nearly identical investment within 30 days of selling it at a loss; the loss is then not allowed.
- Withdrawal rate
- Yearly withdrawals as a percent of savings.